Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
Cincinnati
5–3 · Ours #51 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
7–34FinalWe had CIN 25 – ARIZ 30
Arizona
6–2 · Ours #45 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ARIZ 63%ARIZ won
ARIZ 63%ARIZ wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ARIZ −7.ARIZ −7oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −5.2 · ARIZ covered by 20
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.6.56final 41 · under by 15
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.CIN +7Lmatched the close
CIN +7Lmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
JC French IV16/29 · 153 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1724th pct
- Comp %
- 55.2
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Noah Fifita25/37 · 284 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3676th pct
- Comp %
- 67.6
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Cincinnatioffense | Played like ARIZ +29.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseArizona | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8th | 26.7%▼18.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 26.7%▲11.7 | 92nd |
| 8th | −0.31▼0.49 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.31▲0.36 | 92nd |
| 14th | −0.34▼0.51 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.34▲0.40 | 86th |
| 13th | −0.26▼0.45 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.26▲0.27 | 87th |
| 79th | 0▲0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.4 | 21st |
| Arizonaoffense | defenseCincinnati | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87th | 53.7%▲6.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 53.7%▼9.9 | 13th |
| 69th | +0.19▼0.03 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.19▼0.04 | 31st |
| 78th | +0.35▼0.02 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.35▼0.11 | 23rd |
| 47th | +0.01▲0.01 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.01▲0.08 | 54th |
| 41st | 1▼0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.2 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| CincinnatiCIN | ArizonaARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2844th | Own 2313th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.5 pts16th | +0.8 pts72nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4524th | 5438th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −22.17th | +22.194th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 486th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.7 pts13th | −0.6 pts19th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. CIN +0.8: turnovers +2.6, field position +1.5, kicking −1.6, 4th downs −0.2, penalty first downs −1.5. | +0.853rd | −0.847th |
Season so far
Cincinnati5–3 · 33rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Boston College34–15covered −7
vs Boston College34–15covered −7Wvs Western Carolina62–10covered −36
W
vs Miami (OH)35–31missed −14.5
vs Miami (OH)35–31missed −14.5W
vs Kansas State31–26covered +6
vs Kansas State31–26covered +6Lat Arizona7–34missed +7
at Arizona7–34missed +7L
at West Virginia42–45missed +1.5
at West Virginia42–45missed +1.5W
vs Texas Tech37–24covered +11.5
vs Texas Tech37–24covered +11.5L
vs Utah25–49missed +7
vs Utah25–49missed +7Arizona6–2 · 73rd-hardest schedule
Wvs Northern Arizona35–7missed −33
L
at BYU17–28missed +7
at BYU17–28missed +7W
vs Northern Illinois42–17missed −34.5
vs Northern Illinois42–17missed −34.5W
at Washington State34–24missed −10.5
at Washington State34–24missed −10.5Wvs Cincinnati34–7covered −7
vs Cincinnati34–7covered −7Wat West Virginia52–31covered −3.5
at West Virginia52–31covered −3.5W
vs Iowa State39–3covered −12
vs Iowa State39–3covered −12Lat Texas Tech26–34missed +3.5
at Texas Tech26–34missed +3.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is