Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
Northern Illinois
0–7 · Ours #137 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
17–42FinalWe had NIU 10 – ARIZ 39
Arizona
6–2 · Ours #41 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ARIZ 96%ARIZ won
ARIZ 96%ARIZ wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ARIZ −35.5.ARIZ −34.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −29.6 · NIU covered by 9.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 48.7.49.5final 59 · over by 9.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.NIU +35Wbeat the close by 0.5
NIU +35Wbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Taron Dickens25/37 · 228 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2363rd pct
- Comp %
- 67.6
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Noah Fifita31/34 · 325 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.6492nd pct
- Comp %
- 91.2
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Northern Illinoisoffense | Played like ARIZ +17.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseArizona | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42nd | 40.0%▲8.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.0%▼4.3 | 58th |
| 70th | +0.20▲0.20 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.20▼0.24 | 30th |
| 65th | +0.21▲0.24 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.26 | 35th |
| 66th | +0.15▲0.06 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.15▼0.22 | 35th |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.4 | 21st |
| Arizonaoffense | defenseNorthern Illinois | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88th | 55.3%▲8.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 55.3%▼1.2 | 12th |
| 95th | +0.48▲0.31 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.48▼0.20 | 5th |
| 96th | +0.75▲0.46 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.75▼0.90 | 5th |
| 28th | −0.11▼0.14 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.11▲0.34 | 72nd |
| 41st | 1▼0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.2 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Northern IllinoisNIU | ArizonaARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3164th | Own 2312th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −2.9 pts4th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5030th | 4727th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −19.99th | +19.992nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +1.2 pts96th | +0.5 pts78th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
Season so far
Northern Illinois0–7 · 68th-hardest schedule
L
at Iowa0–40missed +31QB change mid-game
at Iowa0–40missed +31QB change mid-gameLvs Illinois State24–28missed +2.5QB change mid-game
Lat Arizona17–42covered +34.5
at Arizona17–42covered +34.5L
at Georgia State14–35missed +10
at Georgia State14–35missed +10L
vs Air Force7–28missed +7
vs Air Force7–28missed +7L
at Wyoming23–41missed +7
at Wyoming23–41missed +7L
vs Hawai'i21–56missed +3
vs Hawai'i21–56missed +3Arizona6–2 · 73rd-hardest schedule
Wvs Northern Arizona35–7missed −33
L
at BYU17–28missed +7
at BYU17–28missed +7Wvs Northern Illinois42–17missed −34.5
vs Northern Illinois42–17missed −34.5W
at Washington State34–24missed −10.5
at Washington State34–24missed −10.5W
vs Cincinnati34–7covered −7
vs Cincinnati34–7covered −7W
at West Virginia52–31covered −3.5
at West Virginia52–31covered −3.5W
vs Iowa State39–3covered −12
vs Iowa State39–3covered −12L
at Texas Tech26–34missed +3.5
at Texas Tech26–34missed +3.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 9:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is