Week 7 report · Wed, Oct 14 · 2026 Week 7
Western Kentucky
3–5 · Ours #127 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
16–3FinalWe had WKU 28 – SHSU 24
Sam Houston
1–7 · Ours #123 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.WKU 58%WKU won
WKU 58%WKU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at WKU −1.5.WKU −1oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −3.3 · WKU covered by 12
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 52.0.53.5final 19 · under by 34.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.WKU −1.5Wlost 0.5 to the close
WKU −1.5Wlost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Brock Glenn14/30 · 127 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2518th pct
- Comp %
- 46.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Landyn Locke13/30 · 112 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.438th pct
- Comp %
- 43.3
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Western Kentuckyoffense | Played like WKU +6.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseSam Houston | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9th | 27.0%▼9.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 27.0%▲18.3 | 91st |
| 13th | −0.22▼0.05 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.22▲0.28 | 87th |
| 28th | −0.16▲0.06 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.16▲0.12 | 72nd |
| 12th | −0.27▼0.18 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.27▲0.42 | 88th |
| 79th | 0▲1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.7 | 21st |
| Sam Houstonoffense | defenseWestern Kentucky | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4th | 23.2%▼13.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 23.2%▲26.0 | 96th |
| 5th | −0.39▼0.27 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.39▲0.62 | 95th |
| 10th | −0.43▼0.35 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.43▲0.68 | 90th |
| 9th | −0.32▼0.14 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.32▲0.46 | 91st |
| 41st | 1▼0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Western KentuckyWKU | Sam HoustonSHSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2628th | Own 3058th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.9 pts92nd | −0.6 pts25th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7489th | 5643rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +7.672nd | −7.628th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 594th | 127th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. WKU +6.0: turnovers +2.6, field position −1.5, kicking +1.8, penalty first downs +3.1. | +6.077th | −6.023rd |
Season so far
Western Kentucky3–5 · 80th-hardest schedule
L
at Nevada14–49missed PK
at Nevada14–49missed PKL
at Georgia20–70missed +40.5QB change mid-game
at Georgia20–70missed +40.5QB change mid-gameL
at Indiana0–38covered +44.5
at Indiana0–38covered +44.5Wvs Mercyhurst52–7covered −40
L
at New Mexico State13–34missed +2
at New Mexico State13–34missed +2W
vs Missouri State34–13covered +1
vs Missouri State34–13covered +1Wat Sam Houston16–3covered −1
at Sam Houston16–3covered −1L
vs Delaware21–35missed −1.5
vs Delaware21–35missed −1.5Sam Houston1–7 · 95th-hardest schedule
L
at Troy21–24covered +16.5
at Troy21–24covered +16.5L
vs Tulsa17–23covered +12.5
vs Tulsa17–23covered +12.5Wvs Nicholls59–0covered −21
L
at Texas Tech14–49missed +34.5
at Texas Tech14–49missed +34.5L
at Liberty3–35missed +13.5
at Liberty3–35missed +13.5Lvs Western Kentucky3–16missed +1
vs Western Kentucky3–16missed +1Lvs New Mexico State24–30missed +3
vs New Mexico State24–30missed +3Lat Missouri State3–24missed +6
at Missouri State3–24missed +6Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 14, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is