Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
Western Kentucky
3–5 · Ours #130 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
0–38FinalWe had WKU 10 – IU 47
AP #4Indiana
7–1 · Ours #6 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.IU 99%IU won
IU 99%IU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at IU −44.5.IU −44.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −37.4 · WKU covered by 6.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 57.3.59.5final 38 · under by 21.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.WKU +44.5Wmatched the close
WKU +44.5Wmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Brock Glenn16/31 · 116 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.438th pct
- Comp %
- 51.6
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Josh Hoover18/24 · 273 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3474th pct
- Comp %
- 75.0
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Western Kentuckyoffense | Played like IU +29.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseIndiana | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14th | 30.0%▼6.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 30.0%▲7.2 | 87th |
| 5th | −0.36▼0.21 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.36▲0.33 | 95th |
| 12th | −0.40▼0.22 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.40▲0.40 | 88th |
| 9th | −0.31▼0.22 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.31▲0.27 | 91st |
| 41st | 1▲0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
| Indianaoffense | defenseWestern Kentucky | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65th | 45.8%▲3.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.8%▼0.4 | 35th |
| 71st | +0.20▲0.09 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.20▼0.06 | 29th |
| 81st | +0.40▲0.18 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.40▼0.30 | 19th |
| 44th | 0.00▲0.01 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | 0.00▲0.09 | 56th |
| 79th | 0▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Western KentuckyWKU | IndianaIU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2737th | Own 3376th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | −1.4 pts18th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5030th | 4828th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −32.32nd | +32.398th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −2.0 pts1st | 0.0 pts42nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. IU +6.5: turnovers +2.6, field position +2.2, kicking −1.0, 4th downs +2.6. | −6.522nd | +6.578th |
Season so far
Western Kentucky3–5 · 80th-hardest schedule
L
at Nevada14–49missed PK
at Nevada14–49missed PKL
at Georgia20–70missed +40.5QB change mid-game
at Georgia20–70missed +40.5QB change mid-gameLat Indiana0–38covered +44.5
at Indiana0–38covered +44.5Wvs Mercyhurst52–7covered −40
L
at New Mexico State13–34missed +2
at New Mexico State13–34missed +2W
vs Missouri State34–13covered +1
vs Missouri State34–13covered +1W
at Sam Houston16–3covered −1
at Sam Houston16–3covered −1L
vs Delaware21–35missed −1.5
vs Delaware21–35missed −1.5Indiana7–1 · 34th-hardest schedule
W
vs North Texas52–16missed −40
vs North Texas52–16missed −40Wvs Howard55–0missed −58
Wvs Western Kentucky38–0missed −44.5
vs Western Kentucky38–0missed −44.5W
vs Northwestern29–23missed −20.5
vs Northwestern29–23missed −20.5W
at Rutgers47–15covered −24.5
at Rutgers47–15covered −24.5W
at Nebraska20–17missed −9
at Nebraska20–17missed −9L
vs Ohio State15–19missed +2.5
vs Ohio State15–19missed +2.5W
at Michigan13–6missed −7.5
at Michigan13–6missed −7.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 3:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is