Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2
Western Kentucky
3–5 · Ours #130 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
20–70FinalWe had WKU 10 – UGA 47
AP #2Georgia
7–1 · Ours #9 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UGA 99%UGA won
UGA 99%UGA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UGA −39.5.UGA −40.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −37.5 · UGA covered by 9.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.8.55.5final 90 · over by 34.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.WKU +40Llost 0.5 to the close
WKU +40Llost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Brock Glenn12/22 · 84 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0646th pct
- Comp %
- 54.5
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Replaced Rodney Tisdale Jr. in Q2
Gunner Stockton13/16 · 234 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +1.0799th pct
- Comp %
- 81.3
- TD
- 5
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Relieved in Q2 by Ryan Puglisi
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Western Kentuckyoffense | Played like UGA +65.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseGeorgia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3rd | 19.2%▼18.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 19.2%▲18.7 | 97th |
| 2nd | −0.51▼0.38 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.51▲0.42 | 98th |
| 8th | −0.47▼0.30 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.47▲0.40 | 92nd |
| 2nd | −0.56▼0.51 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.56▲0.44 | 98th |
| 15th | 2▼1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.7 | 85th |
| Georgiaoffense | defenseWestern Kentucky | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99th | 70.8%▲21.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 70.8%▼29.5 | 1st |
| 99th | +0.70▲0.55 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.70▼0.64 | 1st |
| 99th | +1.06▲0.97 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +1.06▼1.07 | 1st |
| 56th | +0.09▼0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.09▼0.01 | 44th |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Western KentuckyWKU | GeorgiaUGA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3480th | Own 3586th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 263rd | 242nd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −22.36th | +22.394th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.5 pts78th | 0.0 pts50th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UGA +0.9: turnovers +2.6, field position +0.5, 4th downs −0.6, penalty first downs −1.5. | −0.946th | +0.955th |
Season so far
Western Kentucky3–5 · 80th-hardest schedule
L
at Nevada14–49missed PK
at Nevada14–49missed PKLat Georgia20–70missed +40.5QB change mid-game
at Georgia20–70missed +40.5QB change mid-gameL
at Indiana0–38covered +44.5
at Indiana0–38covered +44.5Wvs Mercyhurst52–7covered −40
L
at New Mexico State13–34missed +2
at New Mexico State13–34missed +2W
vs Missouri State34–13covered +1
vs Missouri State34–13covered +1W
at Sam Houston16–3covered −1
at Sam Houston16–3covered −1L
vs Delaware21–35missed −1.5
vs Delaware21–35missed −1.5Georgia7–1 · 37th-hardest schedule
Wvs Tennessee State63–3covered −48.5
Wvs Western Kentucky70–20covered −40.5
vs Western Kentucky70–20covered −40.5W
at Arkansas45–17covered −24.5
at Arkansas45–17covered −24.5W
vs Oklahoma41–13covered −12
vs Oklahoma41–13covered −12W
vs Vanderbilt38–14missed −26
vs Vanderbilt38–14missed −26W
at Alabama20–17covered +2.5
at Alabama20–17covered +2.5L
vs Auburn24–27missed −19.5QB change mid-game
vs Auburn24–27missed −19.5QB change mid-gameW
vs Florida27–8covered −11
vs Florida27–8covered −11Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 12:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is