Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
UNLV
4–3 · Ours #64 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
31–41FinalWe had UNLV 23 – AF 26
Air Force
6–2 · Ours #85 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.AF 57%AF won
AF 57%AF wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UNLV −2.UNLV −1oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +2.7 · AF covered by 11
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 48.9.48.5final 72 · over by 23.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.AF PKWlost 1.0 to the close
AF PKWlost 1.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Jackson Arnold21/33 · 246 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3272nd pct
- Comp %
- 63.6
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Evan Medders2/3 · 18 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.23
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UNLVoffense | Played like AF +10.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseAir Force | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66th | 46.2%▲9.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 46.2%▼5.4 | 34th |
| 73rd | +0.21▲0.22 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.11 | 27th |
| 74th | +0.32▲0.36 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.32▼0.26 | 26th |
| 58th | +0.10▲0.11 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.10▲0.07 | 42nd |
| 15th | 2▼1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.6 | 85th |
| Air Forceoffense | defenseUNLV | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83rd | 52.3%▲3.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 52.3%▼13.3 | 17th |
| 89th | +0.40▲0.21 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.40▼0.45 | 11th |
| 23rd | −0.23▲0.05 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.23▲0.17 | 78th |
| 93rd | +0.43▲0.24 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.43▼0.49 | 7th |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.7 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UNLVUNLV | Air ForceAF | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2523rd | Own 3379th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.9 pts93rd | +1.3 pts82nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6569th | 6569th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −9.224th | +9.276th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.4 pts26th | +0.7 pts87th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. AF +8.5: turnovers +5.2, field position +3.0, kicking −0.4, 4th downs +1.5, penalty first downs −0.8. | −8.515th | +8.585th |
Season so far
UNLV4–3 · 103rd-hardest schedule
L
vs Memphis21–27missed −5
vs Memphis21–27missed −5W
at Hawai'i21–6covered −2.5
at Hawai'i21–6covered −2.5L
at North Texas6–44missed −3
at North Texas6–44missed −3W
at Akron38–10covered −13.5
at Akron38–10covered −13.5W
vs California39–31covered −1
vs California39–31covered −1W
vs North Dakota State13–7covered +2.5
vs North Dakota State13–7covered +2.5Lat Air Force31–41missed −1
at Air Force31–41missed −1Air Force6–2 · 117th-hardest schedule
Wvs Duquesne34–0covered −31.5
Lvs North Dakota State32–38missed +2
vs North Dakota State32–38missed +2W
at Nevada36–33missed −5.5
at Nevada36–33missed −5.5W
vs Navy14–9covered −3
vs Navy14–9covered −3W
at Northern Illinois28–7covered −7
at Northern Illinois28–7covered −7Wvs UNLV41–31covered +1
vs UNLV41–31covered +1L
at Wyoming14–28missed −6QB change mid-game
at Wyoming14–28missed −6QB change mid-gameW
vs UConn35–26covered +1
vs UConn35–26covered +1Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is