Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
Louisville
5–3 · Ours #30 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
34–26FinalWe had LOU 35 – SYR 22
Syracuse
4–4 · Ours #74 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.LOU 79%LOU won
LOU 79%LOU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at LOU −12.5.LOU −14.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −13.1 · SYR covered by 6.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.9.55.5final 60 · over by 4.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.SYR +13.5Wlost 1.0 to the close
SYR +13.5Wlost 1.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Lincoln Kienholz14/26 · 310 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3272nd pct
- Comp %
- 53.8
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Malachi Nelson26/39 · 315 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- 0.0040th pct
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Louisvilleoffense | Played like LOU +5.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseSyracuse | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56th | 43.3%▼6.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 43.3%▲0.5 | 44th |
| 70th | +0.19▼0.15 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.19▼0.16 | 30th |
| 74th | +0.32▲0.02 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.32▼0.42 | 26th |
| 55th | +0.08▼0.32 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.08▲0.11 | 45th |
| 15th | 2▼1.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.4 | 85th |
| Syracuseoffense | defenseLouisville | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63rd | 45.1%▲4.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.1%▼4.2 | 38th |
| 46th | +0.03▼0.04 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.03▲0.06 | 54th |
| 47th | +0.03▼0.08 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.03▲0.12 | 53rd |
| 47th | +0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.02▲0.02 | 53rd |
| 15th | 2▼0.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.8 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| LouisvilleLOU | SyracuseSYR | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2527th | Own 3166th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +0.5 pts62nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6055th | 8298th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +9.076th | −9.025th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 08th | 594th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts50th | −0.2 pts37th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. SYR +3.4: turnovers −2.6, field position +2.0, kicking +0.4, 4th downs −0.2, penalty first downs +3.9. | −3.433rd | +3.467th |
Season so far
Louisville5–3 · 28th-hardest schedule
L
at Ole Miss38–41covered +6.5
at Ole Miss38–41covered +6.5Wvs Villanova59–13covered −38.5
W
vs SMU41–31covered −3
vs SMU41–31covered −3L
vs Wake Forest27–30missed −11.5
vs Wake Forest27–30missed −11.5L
at NC State28–31missed −5
at NC State28–31missed −5W
vs Florida State44–20covered −3.5
vs Florida State44–20covered −3.5Wat Syracuse34–26missed −14.5
at Syracuse34–26missed −14.5W
vs Stanford52–24covered −22.5
vs Stanford52–24covered −22.5Syracuse4–4 · 47th-hardest schedule
Wvs New Hampshire66–3covered −35.5
L
vs California18–21missed −3.5
vs California18–21missed −3.5L
at Pittsburgh13–27missed +10.5
at Pittsburgh13–27missed +10.5W
at UConn42–41missed −6.5
at UConn42–41missed −6.5L
at Virginia25–28covered +14
at Virginia25–28covered +14Lvs Louisville26–34covered +14.5
vs Louisville26–34covered +14.5W
at North Carolina31–30covered +9.5
at North Carolina31–30covered +9.5Wvs SMU30–27covered +9.5
vs SMU30–27covered +9.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 6:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is