Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
Syracuse
4–4 · Ours #71 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
31–30FinalWe had SYR 21 – UNC 31
North Carolina
4–3 · Ours #41 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UNC 74%SYR won
UNC 74%SYR wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UNC −9.5.UNC −9.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −10.7 · SYR covered by 10.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 51.8.49final 61 · over by 12
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UNC −8.5Lbeat the close by 1.0
UNC −8.5Lbeat the close by 1.0Quarterbacksthis game
Steve Angeli20/34 · 256 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1656th pct
- Comp %
- 58.8
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Billy Edwards Jr.27/44 · 271 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0930th pct
- Comp %
- 61.4
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Syracuseoffense | Played like SYR +2.5Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseNorth Carolina | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58th | 44.0%▲2.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 44.0%▼1.4 | 42nd |
| 59th | +0.11▲0.07 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.11▼0.13 | 41st |
| 60th | +0.16▲0.08 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.16▼0.15 | 41st |
| 55th | +0.08▲0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.08▼0.13 | 45th |
| 79th | 0▲1.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.2 | 21st |
| North Carolinaoffense | defenseSyracuse | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70th | 47.6%▲5.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 47.6%▼4.6 | 30th |
| 43rd | +0.01▲0.05 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.01▲0.06 | 57th |
| 34th | −0.09▼0.04 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.09▲0.07 | 66th |
| 73rd | +0.21▲0.26 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.04 | 27th |
| 79th | 0▲1.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| SyracuseSYR | North CarolinaUNC | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2952nd | Own 3584th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.4 pts59th | +1.2 pts81st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7591st | 6363rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +1.855th | −1.845th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts42nd | −0.2 pts35th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UNC +2.4: field position +2.1, kicking +0.6, 4th downs −0.3. | −2.438th | +2.462nd |
Season so far
Syracuse4–4 · 47th-hardest schedule
Wvs New Hampshire66–3covered −35.5
L
vs California18–21missed −3.5
vs California18–21missed −3.5L
at Pittsburgh13–27missed +10.5
at Pittsburgh13–27missed +10.5W
at UConn42–41missed −6.5
at UConn42–41missed −6.5L
at Virginia25–28covered +14
at Virginia25–28covered +14L
vs Louisville26–34covered +14.5
vs Louisville26–34covered +14.5Wat North Carolina31–30covered +9.5
at North Carolina31–30covered +9.5W
vs SMU30–27covered +9.5
vs SMU30–27covered +9.5North Carolina4–3 · 15th-hardest schedule
W
at TCU15–10covered +7.5
at TCU15–10covered +7.5Wvs East Tennessee State35–3missed −35.5
L
at Clemson20–28missed +3
at Clemson20–28missed +3L
vs Notre Dame26–37covered +21
vs Notre Dame26–37covered +21Wat Pittsburgh21–17covered +3.5
at Pittsburgh21–17covered +3.5W
at Duke24–20covered +3
at Duke24–20covered +3Lvs Syracuse30–31missed −9.5
vs Syracuse30–31missed −9.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is