Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
South Alabama
4–4 · Ours #91 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
21–45FinalWe had USA 22 – UK 36
Kentucky
7–1 · Ours #31 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UK 80%UK won
UK 80%UK wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UK −21.UK −20.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −14.1 · UK covered by 3.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 57.3.54final 66 · over by 12
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| South Alabamaoffense | Played like UK +26.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseKentucky | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23rd | 34.0%▼11.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 34.0%▲10.9 | 77th |
| 39th | −0.02▼0.20 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.02▲0.06 | 61st |
| 28th | −0.16▼0.56 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.16▲0.18 | 72nd |
| 69th | +0.18▲0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.18▼0.14 | 31st |
| 41st | 1▼0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼1.2 | 59th |
| Kentuckyoffense | defenseSouth Alabama | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94th | 60.0%▲15.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 60.0%▼12.3 | 6th |
| 90th | +0.41▲0.39 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.41▼0.09 | 10th |
| 29th | −0.15▼0.23 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.15▲0.54 | 71st |
| 100th | +0.83▲0.83 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.83▼0.57 | 1st |
| 79th | 0▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| South AlabamaUSA | KentuckyUK | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3269th | Own 3585th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.7 pts13th | −1.3 pts19th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5336th | 6055th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −24.45th | +24.495th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 594th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.1 pts61st | −0.7 pts15th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. USA +2.7: field position −1.2, kicking −0.3, 4th downs +1.1, penalty first downs +3.1. | +2.764th | −2.736th |
Season so far
South Alabama4–4 · 98th-hardest schedule
Wvs SE Louisiana39–14covered −13.5
L
at Tulane24–28covered +9.5
at Tulane24–28covered +9.5W
vs Ohio41–36missed −7
vs Ohio41–36missed −7Lat Kentucky21–45missed +20.5
at Kentucky21–45missed +20.5W
vs UL Monroe52–35covered −13.5
vs UL Monroe52–35covered −13.5W
at Arkansas State56–49covered +3
at Arkansas State56–49covered +3L
at Marshall13–20missed −1.5
at Marshall13–20missed −1.5L
vs Louisiana Tech20–35missed +6
vs Louisiana Tech20–35missed +6Kentucky7–1 · 8th-hardest schedule
Wvs Youngstown State45–13covered −22.5
L
vs Alabama17–45missed +9
vs Alabama17–45missed +9W
at Texas A&M31–21covered +16.5
at Texas A&M31–21covered +16.5Wvs South Alabama45–21covered −20.5
vs South Alabama45–21covered −20.5W
at South Carolina35–34covered +2.5
at South Carolina35–34covered +2.5W
vs LSU35–34covered +9.5
vs LSU35–34covered +9.5W
at Oklahoma21–13covered +7
at Oklahoma21–13covered +7W
vs Vanderbilt34–17covered −11
vs Vanderbilt34–17covered −11Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is