Week 6 report · Thu, Oct 8 · 2026 Week 6
South Alabama
4–4 · Ours #103 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
56–49FinalWe had USA 29 – ARST 31
Arkansas State
4–4 · Ours #95 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ARST 56%USA won
ARST 56%USA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ARST −1.5.ARST −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −2.4 · USA covered by 10
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 60.5.59.5final 105 · over by 45.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ARST −1.5Lbeat the close by 1.5
ARST −1.5Lbeat the close by 1.5Quarterbacksthis game
Jared Hollins6/10 · 76 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.6191st pct
- Comp %
- 60.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Trey Owens32/43 · 418 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.5889th pct
- Comp %
- 74.4
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| South Alabamaoffense | Played like ARST +6.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseArkansas State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72nd | 48.3%▲5.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 48.3%▼2.3 | 28th |
| 91st | +0.42▲0.32 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.42▼0.33 | 9th |
| 91st | +0.61▲0.35 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.61▼0.49 | 9th |
| 90th | +0.38▲0.31 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.38▼0.31 | 10th |
| 79th | 0▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.2 | 21st |
| Arkansas Stateoffense | defenseSouth Alabama | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 97th | 65.2%▲22.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 65.2%▼18.4 | 3rd |
| 94th | +0.45▲0.43 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.45▼0.14 | 7th |
| 91st | +0.61▲0.55 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.61▼0.35 | 9th |
| 69th | +0.18▲0.20 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.18▲0.20 | 31st |
| 4th | 3▼2.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 3▲2.7 | 96th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| South AlabamaUSA | Arkansas StateARST | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 46100th | Own 2956th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5848th | 6978th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −19.59th | +19.591st |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 594th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +1.5 pts98th | 0.0 pts50th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. USA +8.3: turnovers +5.2, field position +6.0, 4th downs +2.0, penalty first downs −0.8, return touchdowns −4.2. | +8.384th | −8.316th |
Season so far
South Alabama4–4 · 98th-hardest schedule
Wvs SE Louisiana39–14covered −13.5
L
at Tulane24–28covered +9.5
at Tulane24–28covered +9.5W
vs Ohio41–36missed −7
vs Ohio41–36missed −7L
at Kentucky21–45missed +20.5
at Kentucky21–45missed +20.5W
vs UL Monroe52–35covered −13.5
vs UL Monroe52–35covered −13.5Wat Arkansas State56–49covered +3
at Arkansas State56–49covered +3L
at Marshall13–20missed −1.5
at Marshall13–20missed −1.5L
vs Louisiana Tech20–35missed +6
vs Louisiana Tech20–35missed +6Arkansas State4–4 · 93rd-hardest schedule
L
at Memphis24–42missed +11
at Memphis24–42missed +11Wvs West Georgia52–7covered −31.5
L
at TCU7–31missed +19
at TCU7–31missed +19W
vs Kennesaw State17–14missed −6.5
vs Kennesaw State17–14missed −6.5L
at Louisiana20–23covered +5
at Louisiana20–23covered +5Lvs South Alabama49–56missed −3
vs South Alabama49–56missed −3W
at Southern Miss23–13covered −5.5
at Southern Miss23–13covered −5.5W
vs Georgia State38–32covered +2.5
vs Georgia State38–32covered +2.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 8, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is