Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
UL Monroe
1–7 · Ours #138 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
35–52FinalWe had ULM 21 – USA 40
South Alabama
4–4 · Ours #93 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.USA 87%USA won
USA 87%USA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at USA −14.5.USA −13.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −18.9 · USA covered by 3.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 61.5.56.5final 87 · over by 30.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.USA −14Wlost 0.5 to the close
USA −14Wlost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Aidan Armenta26/41 · 362 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.5086th pct
- Comp %
- 63.4
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Jared Hollins14/19 · 321 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +1.1099th pct
- Comp %
- 73.7
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UL Monroeoffense | Played like ULM +3.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseSouth Alabama | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70th | 47.6%▲11.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 47.6%▲2.2 | 30th |
| 90th | +0.40▲0.55 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.40▼0.08 | 10th |
| 87th | +0.51▲0.73 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.51▼0.23 | 13th |
| 78th | +0.24▲0.33 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.24▲0.12 | 22nd |
| 41st | 1▼0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
| South Alabamaoffense | defenseUL Monroe | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 81st | 51.6%▲9.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 51.6%▼7.2 | 19th |
| 79th | +0.28▲0.16 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.28▼0.12 | 21st |
| 99th | +1.10▲0.91 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +1.10▼1.05 | 1st |
| 31st | −0.09▼0.24 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.09▲0.27 | 69th |
| 79th | 0▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.5 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UL MonroeULM | South AlabamaUSA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2632nd | Own 3270th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −2.8 pts4th | +0.7 pts66th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6363rd | 6466th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +1.254th | −1.246th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 08th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +1.0 pts93rd | +0.1 pts61st |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. USA +9.3: turnovers +2.6, field position +2.0, kicking +2.5, 4th downs −1.2, penalty first downs −0.8, return touchdowns +4.2. | −9.313th | +9.387th |
Season so far
UL Monroe1–7 · 113th-hardest schedule
L
at Mississippi State13–62missed +28.5
at Mississippi State13–62missed +28.5L
at UAB20–26covered +9.5
at UAB20–26covered +9.5Lvs SE Louisiana35–38missed −9.5
L
vs Florida Atlantic17–45missed +11.5
vs Florida Atlantic17–45missed +11.5Lat South Alabama35–52missed +13.5
at South Alabama35–52missed +13.5L
vs Louisiana Tech0–24missed +13.5
vs Louisiana Tech0–24missed +13.5W
at Troy21–14covered +13
at Troy21–14covered +13L
vs Southern Miss21–35missed +3.5
vs Southern Miss21–35missed +3.5South Alabama4–4 · 98th-hardest schedule
Wvs SE Louisiana39–14covered −13.5
L
at Tulane24–28covered +9.5
at Tulane24–28covered +9.5W
vs Ohio41–36missed −7
vs Ohio41–36missed −7L
at Kentucky21–45missed +20.5
at Kentucky21–45missed +20.5Wvs UL Monroe52–35covered −13.5
vs UL Monroe52–35covered −13.5W
at Arkansas State56–49covered +3
at Arkansas State56–49covered +3L
at Marshall13–20missed −1.5
at Marshall13–20missed −1.5Lvs Louisiana Tech20–35missed +6
vs Louisiana Tech20–35missed +6Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is