LockSZNTeam
Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: at USU · Sat, Oct 31 · 3:30 PM ET →

Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Colorado State

3–4 FBS · Pac-12 · this season
Rating
−12.7
Rank
124
Résumé
102
Projected wins
3.8▲ 1.0 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5WyomingWYOCSU −4.1CSU −3.5W 35–1369CSU · W
Sat, Sep 129/12Southern UtahSouthern UtahCSU −34.4CSU −20.0W 58–2469
Sat, Sep 199/19BYUBYUCSU +16.4CSU +20.5L 23–4124CSU · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at UTSAUTSACSU +14.6CSU +13.0L 45–5949UTSA · W
Sat, Oct 310/3Oregon StateORSTCSU +6.9CSU +6.5L 26–5616ORST · W
Thu, Oct 1510/15at Texas StateTXSTCSU +19.2CSU +13.0L 27–6645TXST · W
Sat, Oct 2410/24San Diego StateSDSUCSU +7.2CSU +2.5W 56–4952SDSU · L
Sat, Oct 3110/31at Utah StateUSUCSU +9.2CSU +9.5CSU +9.5Pass
Sat, Nov 711/7Boise StateBOISCSU +20.4—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at Washington StateWSUCSU +12.1—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at Fresno StateFRESCSU +15.6—wk 12

Model on CSU games: 5–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 4–1 · as the dog 1–0 · home 4–0, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +2.5 · closer than the market 2 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
3.83–4 banked, 4 to play · preseason 2.8
Bowl (6+)0%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 0.8 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.285th
Success rate48.1%24th
Pass EPA+0.376th
Rush EPA+0.1720th
Explosive rate12.6%69th
Quality-drive rate49.3%82nd
Points per quality drive4.722nd
Defense
EPA allowed+0.37138th
Success allowed54.7%138th
Pass EPA allowed+0.40138th
Rush EPA allowed+0.35137th
Explosive allowed18.9%137th
Havoc rate12.2%111th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.179th
Turnover margin+714th · exp. +5.0
Field position margin+1.8 yd53rd
Hidden points / game+1.4banked
Luck, wins+0.42.6 earned
One-score record1–0flipped 2–5
Rush rate over expected−4.1%99th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−12.7124th
Schedule played+0.665th
Schedule remaining−0.168th
Full schedule+0.369th
Pregame expected wins1.8of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 124th · −12.7Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUCSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Colorado Stateoff +0.28 5thdef +0.37 allowed · 138th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.