Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
Texas State
4–3 · Ours #72 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
29–31FinalWe had TXST 30 – SDSU 26
San Diego State
3–5 · Ours #96 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TXST 60%SDSU won
TXST 60%SDSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TXST −3.5.TXST −10oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −4 · SDSU covered by 12
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.1.57.5final 60 · over by 2.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.SDSU +4.5Wlost 5.5 to the close
SDSU +4.5Wlost 5.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Brad Jackson27/43 · 372 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0646th pct
- Comp %
- 62.8
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Jayden Denegal15/23 · 109 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2022nd pct
- Comp %
- 65.2
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Texas Stateoffense | Played like TXST +7.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseSan Diego State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71st | 48.0%▼3.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 48.0%▲2.9 | 29th |
| 35th | −0.05▼0.27 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.05▲0.22 | 65th |
| 32nd | −0.12▼0.61 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.12▲0.36 | 68th |
| 47th | +0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.02▲0.10 | 53rd |
| 15th | 2▼1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.5 | 85th |
| San Diego Stateoffense | defenseTexas State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33rd | 37.3%▲2.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 37.3%▲9.4 | 67th |
| 18th | −0.17▼0.13 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.17▲0.38 | 82nd |
| 24th | −0.20▼0.18 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.20▲0.56 | 76th |
| 24th | −0.15▼0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.15▲0.13 | 77th |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.4 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Texas StateTXST | San Diego StateSDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 192nd | Own 3995th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −0.7 pts25th | +1.1 pts77th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 100100th | 5133rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +19.391st | −19.39th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.4 pts77th | −0.7 pts15th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 192nd |
| SafetiesSafeties scored. | 199th | 049th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. SDSU +9.6: turnovers +5.2, field position +6.8, kicking +1.3, 4th downs −1.5, penalty first downs +0.8, safeties −2.9. | −9.612th | +9.688th |
Season so far
Texas State4–3 · 74th-hardest schedule
L
at Texas7–59missed +29.5
at Texas7–59missed +29.5L
vs UTSA26–31missed −2.5
vs UTSA26–31missed −2.5W
vs North Texas49–35covered −3
vs North Texas49–35covered −3Wvs Incarnate Word63–10covered −30.5
Lat San Diego State29–31missed −10
at San Diego State29–31missed −10W
vs Colorado State66–27covered −15
vs Colorado State66–27covered −15W
vs Utah State20–17missed −14
vs Utah State20–17missed −14San Diego State3–5 · 58th-hardest schedule
Wvs Portland State53–20missed −38.5
L
at UCLA10–28missed +13.5
at UCLA10–28missed +13.5L
vs James Madison13–26missed −1.5
vs James Madison13–26missed −1.5L
at Toledo16–41missed +2.5
at Toledo16–41missed +2.5Wvs Texas State31–29covered +10
vs Texas State31–29covered +10L
at Oregon State14–66missed +14.5
at Oregon State14–66missed +14.5W
vs Fresno State26–23covered +7
vs Fresno State26–23covered +7Lat Colorado State49–56missed +1
at Colorado State49–56missed +1Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is