Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
San Diego State
3–5 · Ours #101 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
14–66FinalWe had SDSU 20 – ORST 29
Oregon State
5–2 · Ours #53 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ORST 71%ORST won
ORST 71%ORST wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ORST −14.ORST −14.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −9.1 · ORST covered by 37.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 48.6.52final 80 · over by 28
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.SDSU +13.5Llost 1.0 to the close
SDSU +13.5Llost 1.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Jayden Denegal5/19 · 78 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2318th pct
- Comp %
- 26.3
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Relieved in Q3 by Draiden Trudeau
Braden Atkinson29/38 · 409 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.6793rd pct
- Comp %
- 76.3
- TD
- 5
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| San Diego Stateoffense | Played like ORST +38.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseOregon State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13th | 29.6%▼7.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 29.6%▲13.4 | 87th |
| 14th | −0.20▼0.17 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.20▲0.26 | 86th |
| 32nd | −0.12▼0.08 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.12▲0.19 | 68th |
| 10th | −0.30▼0.21 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.30▲0.33 | 90th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.2 | 59th |
| Oregon Stateoffense | defenseSan Diego State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 97th | 65.3%▲15.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 65.3%▼17.3 | 3rd |
| 93rd | +0.45▲0.25 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.45▼0.36 | 7th |
| 88th | +0.56▲0.33 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.56▼0.43 | 12th |
| 81st | +0.26▲0.14 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.26▼0.19 | 19th |
| 79th | 0▲0.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| San Diego StateSDSU | Oregon StateORST | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2738th | Own 3792nd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | −0.1 pts28th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 274th | 4929th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −36.21st | +36.299th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −1.2 pts3rd | +0.2 pts63rd |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ORST +13.8: turnovers +2.6, field position +3.7, kicking −0.1, 4th downs +1.9, penalty first downs +1.5, return touchdowns +4.2. | −13.84th | +13.896th |
Season so far
San Diego State3–5 · 58th-hardest schedule
Wvs Portland State53–20missed −38.5
L
at UCLA10–28missed +13.5
at UCLA10–28missed +13.5L
vs James Madison13–26missed −1.5
vs James Madison13–26missed −1.5L
at Toledo16–41missed +2.5
at Toledo16–41missed +2.5W
vs Texas State31–29covered +10
vs Texas State31–29covered +10Lat Oregon State14–66missed +14.5
at Oregon State14–66missed +14.5W
vs Fresno State26–23covered +7
vs Fresno State26–23covered +7L
at Colorado State49–56missed +1
at Colorado State49–56missed +1Oregon State5–2 · 101st-hardest schedule
L
at Houston20–33covered +21
at Houston20–33covered +21L
vs Texas Tech24–35covered +25.5
vs Texas Tech24–35covered +25.5Wvs Montana52–17covered −17.5
W
at UTEP33–7covered −11
at UTEP33–7covered −11Wat Colorado State56–26covered −7
at Colorado State56–26covered −7Wvs San Diego State66–14covered −14.5
vs San Diego State66–14covered −14.5W
vs Washington State48–30missed −18.5
vs Washington State48–30missed −18.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is