Board · Sat, Oct 31 · 7:00 PM ET · Week 9Week 9 report
Washington State
1–7 · Ours #105Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
25–28Our projected score
San Diego State
3–5 · Ours #104Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.SDSU 58%
SDSU 58%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.SDSU −2.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −2.9 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −3
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.48oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 53.7 · opened 49.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.SDSU −2.5-114 FanDuel50% to cover · -5.7% EV
SDSU −2.5-114 FanDuel50% to cover · -5.7% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Owen EshelmanFreshman · 2 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.03
- Comp %
- 59.6
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 7
Stone SaundersFreshman · 1 start this year · 2 relief appearances
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.20
- Comp %
- 64.6
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
New starter last game
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| San Diego Stateoffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseWashington State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 107th | −0.01 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.06 | 78th |
| 129th | 37.2% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 41.0% | 64th |
| 98th | +0.01 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.06 | 79th |
| 112th | −0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.06 | 82nd |
| 101st | 11.2% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 13.0% | 93rd |
| Washington Stateoffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseSan Diego State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 125th | −0.06 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.10 | 96th |
| 137th | 34.7% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 49.3% | 134th |
| 124th | −0.12 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.13 | 98th |
| 91st | +0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.07 | 87th |
| 138th | 7.2% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 11.0% | 53rd |
Team stats
| San Diego StateSDSU | Washington StateWSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +1.631st | −1.4112th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −2.1101st | −8.0137th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 44%108th | 33%137th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.7788th | 3.43108th |
| Time of possession | 24:54129th | 29:1261st |
| Plays per game | 61116th | 6484th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | 0 | −7 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 12 – 12 | 17 – 10 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 10.6%129th | 12.2%111th |
Season so far
Washington State1–7 · 35th-hardest schedule
L
at Washington10–24covered +24
at Washington10–24covered +24L
at Kansas State7–34missed +17.5
at Kansas State7–34missed +17.5Wvs Duquesne48–7covered −38.5
L
vs Arizona24–34covered +10.5
vs Arizona24–34covered +10.5L
vs Fresno State6–26missed −2
vs Fresno State6–26missed −2L
at Utah State16–17covered +4
at Utah State16–17covered +4L
at Oregon State30–48covered +18.5
at Oregon State30–48covered +18.5L
vs Boise State10–31missed +14.5
vs Boise State10–31missed +14.5San Diego State3–5 · 55th-hardest schedule
Wvs Portland State53–20missed −38.5
L
at UCLA10–28missed +13.5
at UCLA10–28missed +13.5L
vs James Madison13–26missed −1.5
vs James Madison13–26missed −1.5L
at Toledo16–41missed +2.5
at Toledo16–41missed +2.5W
vs Texas State31–29covered +10
vs Texas State31–29covered +10Lat Oregon State14–66missed +14.5
at Oregon State14–66missed +14.5Wvs Fresno State26–23covered +7
vs Fresno State26–23covered +7L
at Colorado State49–56missed +1
at Colorado State49–56missed +1Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 1:20 PM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is