Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
Fresno State
4–3 · Ours #57 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
23–26FinalWe had FRES 28 – SDSU 22
San Diego State
3–5 · Ours #106 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.FRES 65%SDSU won
FRES 65%SDSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at FRES −9.5.FRES −7oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −6.2 · SDSU covered by 10
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 49.7.46final 49 · over by 3
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.SDSU +8.5Wbeat the close by 1.5
SDSU +8.5Wbeat the close by 1.5Quarterbacksthis game
Jayden Mandal13/25 · 141 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.457th pct
- Comp %
- 52.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 6
Jayden Denegal7/10 · 112 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4682nd pct
- Comp %
- 70.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Relieved in Q2 by Stone Saunders
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Fresno Stateoffense | Played like SDSU +7.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseSan Diego State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60th | 44.6%▲4.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 44.6%▲6.9 | 40th |
| 28th | −0.10▼0.19 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.10▲0.27 | 73rd |
| 9th | −0.45▼0.69 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.45▲0.74 | 91st |
| 76th | +0.23▲0.30 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.23▼0.15 | 24th |
| 41st | 1▼0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
| San Diego Stateoffense | defenseFresno State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56th | 43.3%▲9.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 43.3%▼0.7 | 44th |
| 53rd | +0.07▲0.15 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.07▼0.04 | 47th |
| 77th | +0.34▲0.45 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.34▼0.32 | 24th |
| 29th | −0.10▲0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.10▲0.12 | 71st |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.7 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Fresno StateFRES | San Diego StateSDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2629th | Own 3585th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.4 pts84th | +1.1 pts78th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6569th | 6055th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +1.053rd | −1.048th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.1 pts40th | 0.0 pts50th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. SDSU +3.3: field position +3.4, kicking −0.2, 4th downs +0.1. | −3.334th | +3.367th |
Season so far
Fresno State4–3 · 116th-hardest schedule
L
at USC0–39missed +21.5
at USC0–39missed +21.5W
vs Sacramento State49–3covered −17.5
vs Sacramento State49–3covered −17.5W
at San José State26–10covered −4.5
at San José State26–10covered −4.5W
vs Rice38–24covered −13
vs Rice38–24covered −13W
at Washington State26–6covered +2
at Washington State26–6covered +2L
vs Boise State31–38covered +9.5
vs Boise State31–38covered +9.5Lat San Diego State23–26missed −7
at San Diego State23–26missed −7San Diego State3–5 · 58th-hardest schedule
Wvs Portland State53–20missed −38.5
L
at UCLA10–28missed +13.5
at UCLA10–28missed +13.5L
vs James Madison13–26missed −1.5
vs James Madison13–26missed −1.5L
at Toledo16–41missed +2.5
at Toledo16–41missed +2.5W
vs Texas State31–29covered +10
vs Texas State31–29covered +10L
at Oregon State14–66missed +14.5
at Oregon State14–66missed +14.5Wvs Fresno State26–23covered +7
vs Fresno State26–23covered +7L
at Colorado State49–56missed +1
at Colorado State49–56missed +1Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 9:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is