Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
San Diego State
3–5 · Ours #104 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
49–56FinalWe had SDSU 34 – CSU 26
Colorado State
3–5 · Ours #126 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.SDSU 68%CSU won
SDSU 68%CSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at CSU +2.5.CSU −1oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +7.2 · CSU covered by 6
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 59.9.58final 105 · over by 47
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.SDSU −2.5Llost 3.5 to the close
SDSU −2.5Llost 3.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Stone Saunders23/33 · 369 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4178th pct
- Comp %
- 69.7
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Hauss Hejny24/31 · 333 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.6492nd pct
- Comp %
- 77.4
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| San Diego Stateoffense | Played like CSU +6.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseColorado State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78th | 50.0%▲16.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 50.0%▲9.1 | 22nd |
| 89th | +0.38▲0.52 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.38▲0.03 | 11th |
| 81st | +0.41▲0.53 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.41▲0.18 | 19th |
| 89th | +0.36▲0.56 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.36▼0.04 | 11th |
| 15th | 2▼1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.8 | 85th |
| Colorado Stateoffense | defenseSan Diego State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94th | 59.7%▲15.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 59.7%▼10.7 | 7th |
| 92nd | +0.44▲0.29 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.44▼0.35 | 8th |
| 93rd | +0.64▲0.40 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.64▼0.53 | 7th |
| 83rd | +0.28▲0.24 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.28▼0.22 | 17th |
| 41st | 1▼0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| San Diego StateSDSU | Colorado StateCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2740th | Own 3894th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.6 pts88th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7081st | 7285th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +3.059th | −3.041st |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 08th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts68th | +0.7 pts87th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. CSU +6.7: field position +3.9, kicking −1.1, 4th downs +0.5, penalty first downs −0.8, return touchdowns +4.2. | −6.721st | +6.779th |
Season so far
San Diego State3–5 · 58th-hardest schedule
Wvs Portland State53–20missed −38.5
L
at UCLA10–28missed +13.5
at UCLA10–28missed +13.5L
vs James Madison13–26missed −1.5
vs James Madison13–26missed −1.5L
at Toledo16–41missed +2.5
at Toledo16–41missed +2.5W
vs Texas State31–29covered +10
vs Texas State31–29covered +10L
at Oregon State14–66missed +14.5
at Oregon State14–66missed +14.5W
vs Fresno State26–23covered +7
vs Fresno State26–23covered +7Lat Colorado State49–56missed +1
at Colorado State49–56missed +1Colorado State3–5 · 69th-hardest schedule
W
vs Wyoming35–13covered −3
vs Wyoming35–13covered −3Wvs Southern Utah58–24covered −20
L
vs BYU23–41missed +17.5QB change mid-game
vs BYU23–41missed +17.5QB change mid-gameL
at UTSA45–59push +14
at UTSA45–59push +14Lvs Oregon State26–56missed +7
vs Oregon State26–56missed +7Lat Texas State27–66missed +15
at Texas State27–66missed +15Wvs San Diego State56–49covered −1
vs San Diego State56–49covered −1L
at Utah State14–31missed +9
at Utah State14–31missed +9Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is