Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
San Diego State
3–5 · Ours #81 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
16–41FinalWe had SDSU 22 – TOL 28
Toledo
6–2 · Ours #73 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TOL 65%TOL won
TOL 65%TOL wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TOL −1.5.TOL −2.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −6.3 · TOL covered by 22.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 49.8.50.5final 57 · over by 6.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Jayden Denegal19/31 · 206 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0748th pct
- Comp %
- 61.3
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
John Alan Richter16/22 · 284 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.8196th pct
- Comp %
- 72.7
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| San Diego Stateoffense | Played like TOL +16.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseToledo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6th | 25.6%▼11.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 25.6%▲9.7 | 94th |
| 32nd | −0.07 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.07▲0.08 | 68th |
| 71st | +0.27▲0.38 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.27▼0.21 | 29th |
| 2nd | −0.60▼0.57 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.60▲0.57 | 98th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.2 | 59th |
| Toledooffense | defenseSan Diego State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63rd | 45.3%▲2.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.3%▲6.0 | 37th |
| 66th | +0.17▲0.02 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.17▼0.04 | 34th |
| 96th | +0.76▲0.52 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.76▼0.67 | 4th |
| 16th | −0.22▼0.28 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.22▲0.37 | 84th |
| 79th | 0▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| San Diego StateSDSU | ToledoTOL | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2846th | Own 3584th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.3 pts53rd | +0.1 pts51st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 3915th | 5336th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −8.326th | +8.374th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.6 pts84th | −1.1 pts4th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. TOL +7.8: turnovers +5.2, field position +2.4, kicking −0.2, 4th downs −2.3, penalty first downs −1.5, return touchdowns +4.2. | −7.817th | +7.883rd |
Season so far
San Diego State3–5 · 58th-hardest schedule
Wvs Portland State53–20missed −38.5
L
at UCLA10–28missed +13.5
at UCLA10–28missed +13.5L
vs James Madison13–26missed −1.5
vs James Madison13–26missed −1.5Lat Toledo16–41missed +2.5
at Toledo16–41missed +2.5W
vs Texas State31–29covered +10
vs Texas State31–29covered +10L
at Oregon State14–66missed +14.5
at Oregon State14–66missed +14.5W
vs Fresno State26–23covered +7
vs Fresno State26–23covered +7L
at Colorado State49–56missed +1
at Colorado State49–56missed +1Toledo6–2 · 129th-hardest schedule
L
at Michigan State20–30push +10
at Michigan State20–30push +10Wvs Central Connecticut63–10covered −36
W
vs Temple49–48missed −5
vs Temple49–48missed −5Wvs San Diego State41–16covered −2.5
vs San Diego State41–16covered −2.5W
at Ball State39–24missed −21
at Ball State39–24missed −21L
vs Buffalo8–23missed −18.5
vs Buffalo8–23missed −18.5W
at Eastern Michigan34–14covered −7.5
at Eastern Michigan34–14covered −7.5W
vs Western Michigan45–38covered −2.5
vs Western Michigan45–38covered −2.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is