Week 8 report · Wed, Oct 21 · 2026 Week 8
New Mexico State
3–5 · Ours #121 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
30–24FinalWe had NMSU 25 – SHSU 22
Sam Houston
1–7 · Ours #130 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.NMSU 57%NMSU won
NMSU 57%NMSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at NMSU −2.5.NMSU −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −2.6 · NMSU covered by 3
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 47.1.47.5final 54 · over by 6.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.SHSU +3Lmatched the close
SHSU +3Lmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Adam Damante19/29 · 160 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0436th pct
- Comp %
- 65.5
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Landyn Locke17/30 · 232 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1724th pct
- Comp %
- 56.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| New Mexico Stateoffense | Played like NMSU +6.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseSam Houston | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42nd | 40.0%▲2.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.0%▲3.1 | 58th |
| 27th | −0.10▲0.01 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.10▲0.13 | 73rd |
| 40th | −0.04▲0.28 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.04▼0.02 | 60th |
| 24th | −0.14▼0.17 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.14▲0.26 | 76th |
| 41st | 1▲0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.5 | 59th |
| Sam Houstonoffense | defenseNew Mexico State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6th | 25.5%▼11.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 25.5%▲18.7 | 94th |
| 16th | −0.19▼0.04 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.19▲0.26 | 84th |
| 21st | −0.26▼0.14 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.26▲0.34 | 79th |
| 33rd | −0.07▲0.14 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.07▲0.07 | 67th |
| 41st | 1▼0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.2 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| New Mexico StateNMSU | Sam HoustonSHSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3481st | Own 3272nd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.3 pts54th | +0.7 pts68th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7081st | 5133rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +8.074th | −8.026th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.7 pts15th | −0.3 pts30th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. SHSU +2.8: field position −0.7, kicking +0.3, 4th downs +0.5, penalty first downs −1.5, return touchdowns +4.2. | −2.835th | +2.865th |
Season so far
New Mexico State3–5 · 111th-hardest schedule
L
at Florida State17–34covered +31
at Florida State17–34covered +31Wvs Mercyhurst51–14covered −29
L
at Hawai'i19–29missed +7.5
at Hawai'i19–29missed +7.5L
vs New Mexico18–42missed +11.5
vs New Mexico18–42missed +11.5W
vs Western Kentucky34–13covered −2
vs Western Kentucky34–13covered −2L
at Florida International3–22missed +7
at Florida International3–22missed +7Wat Sam Houston30–24covered −3
at Sam Houston30–24covered −3L
vs Jacksonville State0–24missed +3
vs Jacksonville State0–24missed +3Sam Houston1–7 · 95th-hardest schedule
L
at Troy21–24covered +16.5
at Troy21–24covered +16.5L
vs Tulsa17–23covered +12.5
vs Tulsa17–23covered +12.5Wvs Nicholls59–0covered −21
L
at Texas Tech14–49missed +34.5
at Texas Tech14–49missed +34.5L
at Liberty3–35missed +13.5
at Liberty3–35missed +13.5Lvs Western Kentucky3–16missed +1
vs Western Kentucky3–16missed +1Lvs New Mexico State24–30missed +3
vs New Mexico State24–30missed +3L
at Missouri State3–24missed +6
at Missouri State3–24missed +6Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 21, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is