Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2
Tulsa
4–4 · Ours #88 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
23–17FinalWe had TLSA 28 – SHSU 26
Sam Houston
1–7 · Ours #124 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TLSA 55%TLSA won
TLSA 55%TLSA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TLSA −13.5.TLSA −12.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −2 · SHSU covered by 6.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.7.51.5final 40 · under by 11.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.SHSU +14Wbeat the close by 1.5
SHSU +14Wbeat the close by 1.5Quarterbacksthis game
Baylor Hayes16/29 · 126 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3213th pct
- Comp %
- 55.2
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Landyn Locke24/35 · 316 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0545th pct
- Comp %
- 68.6
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Tulsaoffense | Played like SHSU +4.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseSam Houston | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17th | 31.5%▼8.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 31.5%▲13.0 | 83rd |
| 41st | −0.01▼0.17 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.01▲0.02 | 59th |
| 8th | −0.48▼0.72 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.48▲0.49 | 92nd |
| 94th | +0.48▲0.36 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.48▼0.46 | 6th |
| 79th | 0▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.7 | 21st |
| Sam Houstonoffense | defenseTulsa | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57th | 43.8%▲10.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 43.8%▼3.1 | 43rd |
| 43rd | +0.01▲0.19 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.01▲0.08 | 57th |
| 50th | +0.05▲0.22 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.05▲0.02 | 50th |
| 35th | −0.06▲0.16 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.06▲0.09 | 65th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.5 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| TulsaTLSA | Sam HoustonSHSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2849th | Own 229th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.8 pts72nd | +0.8 pts70th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7387th | 6466th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −4.835th | +4.865th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 486th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +1.0 pts94th | −0.8 pts12th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. TLSA +4.5: field position +2.1, 4th downs +2.4. | +4.571st | −4.529th |
Season so far
Tulsa4–4 · 94th-hardest schedule
W
vs Oklahoma State24–10covered +13
vs Oklahoma State24–10covered +13Wat Sam Houston23–17missed −12.5
at Sam Houston23–17missed −12.5Wvs East Texas A&M42–0covered −41
L
at Arkansas6–34missed +7
at Arkansas6–34missed +7L
vs North Texas44–45covered +2.5
vs North Texas44–45covered +2.5L
at Navy26–34missed +3
at Navy26–34missed +3W
at Rice38–17covered −4.5
at Rice38–17covered −4.5L
vs Army35–38missed +1
vs Army35–38missed +1Sam Houston1–7 · 95th-hardest schedule
L
at Troy21–24covered +16.5
at Troy21–24covered +16.5Lvs Tulsa17–23covered +12.5
vs Tulsa17–23covered +12.5Wvs Nicholls59–0covered −21
L
at Texas Tech14–49missed +34.5
at Texas Tech14–49missed +34.5L
at Liberty3–35missed +13.5
at Liberty3–35missed +13.5L
vs Western Kentucky3–16missed +1
vs Western Kentucky3–16missed +1L
vs New Mexico State24–30missed +3
vs New Mexico State24–30missed +3L
at Missouri State3–24missed +6
at Missouri State3–24missed +6Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is