Kennesaw State
2–6 · Ours #110Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
25–23Our projected score
Sam Houston
1–7 · Ours #131Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.KENN 55%
KENN 55%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. KENN −1.9
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 48.2
Our call · No priceNeither DraftKings nor FanDuel is offering our side at our number right now, so there is no price to judge.—
Quarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Rickie CollinsJunior · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.0579th
- Comp %
- 67.8
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 55 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 6
Landyn LockeSophomore · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.02105th
- Comp %
- 62.1
- TD
- 12
- Turnovers
- 44 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 13
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Sam Houstonoffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseKennesaw State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 135th | −0.09 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.07 | 86th |
| 128th | 37.4% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 43.9% | 101st |
| 115th | −0.06 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.10 | 92nd |
| 136th | −0.15 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.04 | 74th |
| 131st | 9.6% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 12.1% | 78th |
| Kennesaw Stateoffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseSam Houston | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76th | +0.06 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | −0.05 | 28th |
| 58th | 44.0% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 39.1% | 40th |
| 81st | +0.04 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.18 | 12th |
| 62nd | +0.09 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.05 | 76th |
| 91st | 11.8% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 12.5% | 85th |
Team stats
| Sam HoustonSHSU | Kennesaw StateKENN | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −2.0117th | −1.2108th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −0.890th | −4.2124th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 38%131st | 40%126th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 2.59135th | 4.4832nd |
| Time of possession | 29:1259th | 25:00125th |
| Plays per game | 63100th | 6398th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | 0 | −2 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 11 – 11 | 13 – 11 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 18.1%10th | 12.0%119th |
Season so far
Kennesaw State2–6 · 82nd-hardest schedule
Wvs West Georgia47–0covered −21.5
L
vs Georgia State17–31missed −7.5
vs Georgia State17–31missed −7.5L
at Tennessee9–42covered +35.5
at Tennessee9–42covered +35.5L
at Arkansas State14–17covered +6.5
at Arkansas State14–17covered +6.5L
vs Jacksonville State26–27covered +3
vs Jacksonville State26–27covered +3L
at Missouri State21–24missed −2.5
at Missouri State21–24missed −2.5L
vs Liberty6–34missed +9.5
vs Liberty6–34missed +9.5W
at Middle Tennessee44–28covered −1
at Middle Tennessee44–28covered −1Sam Houston1–7 · 95th-hardest schedule
L
at Troy21–24covered +16.5
at Troy21–24covered +16.5L
vs Tulsa17–23covered +12.5
vs Tulsa17–23covered +12.5Wvs Nicholls59–0covered −21
L
at Texas Tech14–49missed +34.5
at Texas Tech14–49missed +34.5Lat Liberty3–35missed +13.5
at Liberty3–35missed +13.5L
vs Western Kentucky3–16missed +1
vs Western Kentucky3–16missed +1L
vs New Mexico State24–30missed +3
vs New Mexico State24–30missed +3Lat Missouri State3–24missed +6
at Missouri State3–24missed +6Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 27, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is