Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
Minnesota
5–2 · Ours #50 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
13–41FinalWe had MINN 30 – PUR 24
Purdue
3–4 · Ours #88 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MINN 65%PUR won
MINN 65%PUR wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at MINN −2.5.MINN −2.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −5.9 · PUR covered by 30.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.0.49.5final 54 · over by 4.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.MINN −2.5Lmatched the close
MINN −2.5Lmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Drake Lindsey22/39 · 248 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1858th pct
- Comp %
- 56.4
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Ryan Browne14/24 · 159 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1757th pct
- Comp %
- 58.3
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Minnesotaoffense | Played like PUR +17.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defensePurdue | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11th | 28.9%▼9.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 28.9%▲25.6 | 89th |
| 33rd | −0.06▲0.08 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.06▲0.31 | 67th |
| 67th | +0.23▲0.38 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.23▲0.09 | 33rd |
| 0th | −0.86▼0.66 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.86▲1.05 | 100th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
| Purdueoffense | defenseMinnesota | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78th | 50.0%▲6.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 50.0%▼9.8 | 22nd |
| 70th | +0.20▲0.14 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.20▼0.35 | 30th |
| 60th | +0.17▲0.01 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.17▼0.44 | 40th |
| 74th | +0.21▲0.26 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.25 | 26th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.8 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| MinnesotaMINN | PurduePUR | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2845th | Own 3270th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.9 pts93rd | +1.3 pts83rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4524th | 6466th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −16.712th | +16.788th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −1.0 pts7th | −0.4 pts26th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. PUR +5.9: turnovers +2.6, field position +1.4, kicking −0.4, 4th downs +0.7, penalty first downs +1.5. | −5.923rd | +5.977th |
Season so far
Minnesota5–2 · 59th-hardest schedule
Wvs Eastern Illinois59–7covered −42.5
L
vs Mississippi State13–38missed PK
vs Mississippi State13–38missed PKW
vs Akron41–7covered −23
vs Akron41–7covered −23W
at Washington27–24covered +12
at Washington27–24covered +12W
vs Michigan20–14covered +6
vs Michigan20–14covered +6Lat Purdue13–41missed −2.5
at Purdue13–41missed −2.5W
vs Iowa13–10covered +7.5
vs Iowa13–10covered +7.5Purdue3–4 · 4th-hardest schedule
Wvs Indiana State44–19missed −35
L
vs Wake Forest36–38covered +3
vs Wake Forest36–38covered +3L
at UCLA38–52missed +13.5
at UCLA38–52missed +13.5L
vs Notre Dame10–49missed +27.5
vs Notre Dame10–49missed +27.5W
at Illinois24–17covered +9.5
at Illinois24–17covered +9.5Wvs Minnesota41–13covered +2.5
vs Minnesota41–13covered +2.5Lvs Washington26–38missed −3
vs Washington26–38missed −3Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is