Board · Sat, Oct 31 · 4:15 PM ET · Week 9Week 9 report
Purdue
3–4 · Ours #81Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
22–34Our projected score
Penn State
3–4 · Ours #34Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.PSU 76%
PSU 76%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.PSU −10oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −11.3 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −7.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.55.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 55.9 · opened 52.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.PSU −10.0-112 DraftKings51% to cover · -4.0% EV
PSU −10.0-112 DraftKings51% to cover · -4.0% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Ryan BrowneJunior · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.1844th
- Comp %
- 65.6
- TD
- 10
- Turnovers
- 33 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 12
Rocco BechtSenior · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.1457th
- Comp %
- 62.9
- TD
- 12
- Turnovers
- 55 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 10
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Penn Stateoffense | Offense edge · 4 of 5 | defensePurdue | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 106th | 0.00 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.16 | 122nd |
| 112th | 39.6% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 47.3% | 130th |
| 73rd | +0.08 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.20 | 118th |
| 127th | −0.09 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.12 | 109th |
| 113th | 10.6% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 19.4% | 138th |
| Purdueoffense | Offense edge · 4 of 5 | defensePenn State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43rd | +0.15 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | −0.01 | 44th |
| 41st | 45.6% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 40.2% | 57th |
| 31st | +0.23 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.19 | 9th |
| 77th | +0.06 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.15 | 118th |
| 43rd | 13.7% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 12.8% | 90th |
Team stats
| Penn StatePSU | PurduePUR | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +1.148th | +2.717th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +4.229th | +2.443rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 51%70th | 61%10th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.8385th | 4.2754th |
| Time of possession | 23:24132nd | 32:246th |
| Plays per game | 6765th | 6843rd |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +6 | +3 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 9 – 15 | 7 – 10 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 16.5%26th | 13.1%91st |
Season so far
Purdue3–4 · 3rd-hardest schedule
Wvs Indiana State44–19missed −35
L
vs Wake Forest36–38covered +3
vs Wake Forest36–38covered +3L
at UCLA38–52missed +13.5
at UCLA38–52missed +13.5L
vs Notre Dame10–49missed +27.5
vs Notre Dame10–49missed +27.5W
at Illinois24–17covered +9.5
at Illinois24–17covered +9.5W
vs Minnesota41–13covered +2.5
vs Minnesota41–13covered +2.5L
vs Washington26–38missed −3
vs Washington26–38missed −3Penn State3–4 · 63rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Marshall45–0covered −23.5
vs Marshall45–0covered −23.5W
at Temple27–9missed −24
at Temple27–9missed −24W
vs Buffalo55–13covered −40
vs Buffalo55–13covered −40L
vs Wisconsin20–24missed −10
vs Wisconsin20–24missed −10L
at Northwestern13–34missed −2.5
at Northwestern13–34missed −2.5L
vs USC23–31missed +1
vs USC23–31missed +1L
at Michigan18–21covered +5.5
at Michigan18–21covered +5.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 1:20 PM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is