Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
Colorado
3–5 · Ours #82 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–57FinalWe had COLO 20 – OKST 31
Oklahoma State
5–2 · Ours #46 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.OKST 75%OKST won
OKST 75%OKST wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at OKST −13.5.OKST −13.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −10.9 · OKST covered by 19.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 50.5.55.5final 81 · over by 25.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.COLO +13.5Lmatched the close
COLO +13.5Lmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Isaac Wilson19/27 · 280 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1959th pct
- Comp %
- 70.4
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Drew Mestemaker21/36 · 386 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3373rd pct
- Comp %
- 58.3
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Coloradooffense | Played like OKST +1.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseOklahoma State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57th | 43.8%▲4.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 43.8%▼0.7 | 43rd |
| 78th | +0.27▲0.33 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.27▼0.16 | 22nd |
| 83rd | +0.43▲0.47 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.43▼0.31 | 18th |
| 56th | +0.08▲0.19 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.08▼0.04 | 44th |
| 15th | 2▼0.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.2 | 85th |
| Oklahoma Stateoffense | defenseColorado | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78th | 50.0%▲1.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 50.0%▼11.2 | 22nd |
| 75th | +0.23▲0.06 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.23▼0.27 | 25th |
| 74th | +0.32▲0.02 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.32▼0.19 | 26th |
| 62nd | +0.13▲0.08 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.13▼0.30 | 38th |
| 79th | 0▲1.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| ColoradoCOLO | Oklahoma StateOKST | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2631st | Own 3790th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.0 pts75th | +2.7 pts98th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4828th | 6466th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −7.727th | +7.773rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 698th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts68th | 0.0 pts50th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. OKST +15.6: turnovers +7.8, field position +3.8, kicking +1.2, 4th downs −0.4, penalty first downs +3.1. | −15.62nd | +15.698th |
Season so far
Colorado3–5 · 12th-hardest schedule
W
at Georgia Tech14–13covered +6.5
at Georgia Tech14–13covered +6.5Wvs Weber State52–21missed −38.5
L
at Northwestern7–41missed +3.5
at Northwestern7–41missed +3.5L
at Baylor13–23missed +9.5QB change mid-game
at Baylor13–23missed +9.5QB change mid-gameL
vs Texas Tech7–29missed +13.5
vs Texas Tech7–29missed +13.5L
vs Utah24–27covered +15.5
vs Utah24–27covered +15.5Lat Oklahoma State24–57missed +13.5
at Oklahoma State24–57missed +13.5W
vs Kansas State27–24push −3
vs Kansas State27–24push −3Oklahoma State5–2 · 48th-hardest schedule
L
at Tulsa10–24missed −13
at Tulsa10–24missed −13W
vs Oregon39–31covered +24
vs Oregon39–31covered +24Wvs Murray State59–0covered −55.5
W
at West Virginia41–24covered +2
at West Virginia41–24covered +2W
vs UCF42–28covered −10
vs UCF42–28covered −10L
at Houston32–35covered +3.5
at Houston32–35covered +3.5Wvs Colorado57–24covered −13.5
vs Colorado57–24covered −13.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is