Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2
AP #6Oregon
5–3 · Ours #5 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
31–39FinalWe had ORE 44 – OKST 12
Oklahoma State
5–2 · Ours #120 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ORE 97%OKST won
ORE 97%OKST wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ORE −22.ORE −24oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −31.6 · OKST covered by 32
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.8.54.5final 70 · over by 15.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ORE −22.5Lbeat the close by 1.5
ORE −22.5Lbeat the close by 1.5Quarterbacksthis game
Dante Moore14/29 · 191 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2418th pct
- Comp %
- 48.3
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
Drew Mestemaker26/45 · 317 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2716th pct
- Comp %
- 57.8
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Oregonoffense | Played like OKST +6.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseOklahoma State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15th | 30.5%▼10.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 30.5%▲15.3 | 85th |
| 23rd | −0.13▼0.15 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.13▲0.31 | 77th |
| 22nd | −0.24▼0.33 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.24▲0.49 | 78th |
| 47th | +0.02▲0.06 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.02▲0.03 | 53rd |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.2 | 21st |
| Oklahoma Stateoffense | defenseOregon | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57th | 43.5%▼6.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 43.5%▼6.3 | 43rd |
| 28th | −0.09▼0.33 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.09▲0.05 | 72nd |
| 19th | −0.27▼0.68 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.27▲0.17 | 81st |
| 61st | +0.12▲0.06 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.12▼0.11 | 39th |
| 15th | 2▼0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.2 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| OregonORE | Oklahoma StateOKST | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3375th | Own 3479th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.9 pts73rd | +1.9 pts93rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5951st | 8599th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −8.825th | +8.875th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 08th | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −1.4 pts2nd | −0.3 pts32nd |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 043rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ORE +5.3: turnovers +5.2, field position −0.3, kicking −0.8, 4th downs −1.5, penalty first downs −1.5, return touchdowns +4.2. | +5.374th | −5.326th |
Season so far
Oregon5–3 · 7th-hardest schedule
W
vs Boise State34–27missed −25
vs Boise State34–27missed −25Lat Oklahoma State31–39missed −24
at Oklahoma State31–39missed −24Wvs Portland State84–0covered −58.5
W
at USC41–27covered −3.5QB change mid-game
at USC41–27covered −3.5QB change mid-gameL
vs UCLA15–17missed −10.5
vs UCLA15–17missed −10.5W
vs Nebraska17–14missed −6.5
vs Nebraska17–14missed −6.5L
at Illinois10–21missed −10
at Illinois10–21missed −10W
vs Northwestern34–26covered −3.5
vs Northwestern34–26covered −3.5Oklahoma State5–2 · 48th-hardest schedule
L
at Tulsa10–24missed −13
at Tulsa10–24missed −13Wvs Oregon39–31covered +24
vs Oregon39–31covered +24Wvs Murray State59–0covered −55.5
W
at West Virginia41–24covered +2
at West Virginia41–24covered +2W
vs UCF42–28covered −10
vs UCF42–28covered −10L
at Houston32–35covered +3.5
at Houston32–35covered +3.5W
vs Colorado57–24covered −13.5
vs Colorado57–24covered −13.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is