Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
UCF
4–4 · Ours #54 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
28–42FinalWe had UCF 22 – OKST 25
AP #18Oklahoma State
5–2 · Ours #61 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.OKST 58%OKST won
OKST 58%OKST wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at OKST −10.OKST −10oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −3.1 · OKST covered by 4
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 47.3.54final 70 · over by 16
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UCF +9.5Llost 0.5 to the close
UCF +9.5Llost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Keyone Jenkins30/42 · 265 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4884th pct
- Comp %
- 71.4
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Drew Mestemaker19/28 · 304 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.6090th pct
- Comp %
- 67.9
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UCFoffense | Played like OKST +10.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseOklahoma State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59th | 44.4%▲5.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 44.4%▼1.4 | 41st |
| 69th | +0.19▲0.19 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.19▼0.07 | 31st |
| 85th | +0.48▲0.53 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.48▼0.38 | 15th |
| 23rd | −0.15▼0.17 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.15▲0.23 | 77th |
| 41st | 1▼0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
| Oklahoma Stateoffense | defenseUCF | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84th | 52.5%▲4.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 52.5%▼10.7 | 16th |
| 86th | +0.35▲0.20 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.35▼0.30 | 14th |
| 90th | +0.60▲0.36 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.60▼0.40 | 10th |
| 60th | +0.11▲0.06 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.11▼0.19 | 40th |
| 79th | 0▲1.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.5 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UCFUCF | Oklahoma StateOKST | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2844th | Own 3378th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −2.0 pts10th | +1.1 pts78th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 8197th | 5951st |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −7.727th | +7.773rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +1.0 pts93rd | +0.1 pts59th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. OKST +6.3: turnovers +2.6, field position +2.0, kicking +2.2, 4th downs −1.2, penalty first downs +0.8. | −6.322nd | +6.378th |
Season so far
UCF4–4 · 25th-hardest schedule
Wvs Bethune-Cookman73–6covered −43
L
at Pittsburgh7–12covered +7
at Pittsburgh7–12covered +7W
vs Georgia State44–30missed −17.5
vs Georgia State44–30missed −17.5W
vs TCU21–13covered +3.5
vs TCU21–13covered +3.5L
at Houston17–27covered +10.5
at Houston17–27covered +10.5Lat Oklahoma State28–42missed +10
at Oklahoma State28–42missed +10W
vs BYU39–31covered +7.5
vs BYU39–31covered +7.5L
vs Baylor9–41missed +2.5
vs Baylor9–41missed +2.5Oklahoma State5–2 · 48th-hardest schedule
L
at Tulsa10–24missed −13
at Tulsa10–24missed −13W
vs Oregon39–31covered +24
vs Oregon39–31covered +24Wvs Murray State59–0covered −55.5
W
at West Virginia41–24covered +2
at West Virginia41–24covered +2Wvs UCF42–28covered −10
vs UCF42–28covered −10Lat Houston32–35covered +3.5
at Houston32–35covered +3.5W
vs Colorado57–24covered −13.5
vs Colorado57–24covered −13.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is