Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
AP #18Oklahoma State
5–2 · Ours #51 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
32–35FinalWe had OKST 22 – HOU 34
AP #20Houston
6–2 · Ours #22 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.HOU 77%HOU won
HOU 77%HOU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at HOU −4.HOU −3.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −12.2 · OKST covered by 0.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.2.62final 67 · over by 5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Drew Mestemaker22/34 · 365 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.5688th pct
- Comp %
- 64.7
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Conner Weigman24/33 · 343 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.6090th pct
- Comp %
- 72.7
- TD
- 5
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Oklahoma Stateoffense | Played like OKST +2.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseHouston | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88th | 55.2%▲7.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 55.2%▼11.2 | 12th |
| 88th | +0.38▲0.23 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.38▼0.24 | 12th |
| 89th | +0.56▲0.32 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.56▼0.40 | 11th |
| 57th | +0.09▲0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.09▼0.04 | 43rd |
| 15th | 2▼0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.0 | 85th |
| Houstonoffense | defenseOklahoma State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88th | 54.8%▲4.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 54.8%▼13.9 | 12th |
| 82nd | +0.30▲0.13 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.30▼0.20 | 19th |
| 91st | +0.60▲0.26 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.60▼0.52 | 10th |
| 48th | +0.02▼0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.02▲0.03 | 52nd |
| 41st | 1▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Oklahoma StateOKST | HoustonHOU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2210th | Own 2736th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.2 pts52nd | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5848th | 7387th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +3.461st | −3.439th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 486th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts59th | +1.2 pts96th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. HOU +6.2: turnovers +2.6, field position +1.4, kicking −0.1, 4th downs +1.5, penalty first downs +0.8. | −6.223rd | +6.278th |
Season so far
Oklahoma State5–2 · 48th-hardest schedule
L
at Tulsa10–24missed −13
at Tulsa10–24missed −13W
vs Oregon39–31covered +24
vs Oregon39–31covered +24Wvs Murray State59–0covered −55.5
W
at West Virginia41–24covered +2
at West Virginia41–24covered +2W
vs UCF42–28covered −10
vs UCF42–28covered −10Lat Houston32–35covered +3.5
at Houston32–35covered +3.5W
vs Colorado57–24covered −13.5
vs Colorado57–24covered −13.5Houston6–2 · 27th-hardest schedule
W
vs Oregon State33–20missed −21
vs Oregon State33–20missed −21Wvs Southern77–6covered −52
L
at Texas Tech26–28covered +7.5
at Texas Tech26–28covered +7.5W
at Georgia Southern42–28missed −17.5
at Georgia Southern42–28missed −17.5Wvs UCF27–17missed −10.5
vs UCF27–17missed −10.5W
at Kansas State35–16covered +2.5
at Kansas State35–16covered +2.5Wvs Oklahoma State35–32missed −3.5
vs Oklahoma State35–32missed −3.5L
at Utah13–21missed +6.5
at Utah13–21missed +6.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 6:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is