Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
North Texas
6–2 · Ours #53 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
49–39FinalWe had UNT 34 – NAVY 29
Navy
2–6 · Ours #95 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UNT 61%UNT won
UNT 61%UNT wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UNT −2.5.UNT −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −4.5 · UNT covered by 7
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 63.2.61final 88 · over by 27
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UNT −2Wbeat the close by 1.0
UNT −2Wbeat the close by 1.0Quarterbacksthis game
Tayven Jackson17/23 · 305 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.5687th pct
- Comp %
- 73.9
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Jackson Gutierrez7/10 · 133 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +1.0799th pct
- Comp %
- 70.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| North Texasoffense | Played like UNT +1.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseNavy | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95th | 61.5%▲14.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 61.5%▼22.5 | 5th |
| 85th | +0.34▲0.05 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.34▼0.25 | 15th |
| 88th | +0.56▲0.12 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.56▼0.31 | 12th |
| 66th | +0.15▲0.04 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.15▼0.24 | 34th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.4 | 59th |
| Navyoffense | defenseNorth Texas | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71st | 47.9%▲4.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 47.9%▼4.2 | 29th |
| 87th | +0.35▲0.13 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.35▼0.23 | 14th |
| 98th | +0.95▲0.58 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.95▼0.57 | 2nd |
| 78th | +0.24▼0.01 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.24▼0.33 | 22nd |
| 79th | 0▲0.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| North TexasUNT | NavyNAVY | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2742nd | Own 2522nd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +0.5 pts60th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5234th | 7387th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +9.476th | −9.424th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 08th | 698th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts68th | −0.5 pts22nd |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 2100th | 043rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UNT +2.8: turnovers −2.6, field position +0.9, kicking −0.3, 4th downs +1.1, penalty first downs −4.6, return touchdowns +8.3. | +2.865th | −2.835th |
Season so far
North Texas6–2 · 87th-hardest schedule
L
at Indiana16–52covered +40
at Indiana16–52covered +40W
vs UNLV44–6covered +3
vs UNLV44–6covered +3L
at Texas State35–49missed +3
at Texas State35–49missed +3Wvs Houston Christian63–14covered −38.5
W
at Tulsa45–44missed −2.5
at Tulsa45–44missed −2.5W
vs Charlotte50–10covered −28
vs Charlotte50–10covered −28Wat Navy49–39covered −3
at Navy49–39covered −3W
vs Florida Atlantic48–41missed −14.5
vs Florida Atlantic48–41missed −14.5Navy2–6 · 66th-hardest schedule
Wvs Towson42–15missed −31.5
Lat Florida Atlantic30–38missed −4QB change mid-game
at Florida Atlantic30–38missed −4QB change mid-gameL
at UAB20–24missed −6.5
at UAB20–24missed −6.5L
at Air Force9–14missed +3QB change mid-game
at Air Force9–14missed +3QB change mid-gameWvs Tulsa34–26covered −3
vs Tulsa34–26covered −3L
at UTSA34–38covered +5.5
at UTSA34–38covered +5.5Lvs North Texas39–49missed +3
vs North Texas39–49missed +3L
vs Notre Dame13–35covered +31
vs Notre Dame13–35covered +31Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is