UAB
4–4 · Ours #120Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
23–40Our projected score
North Texas
6–2 · Ours #55Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.UNT 84%
UNT 84%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. UNT −16.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 63.2
Our call · No priceNeither DraftKings nor FanDuel is offering our side at our number right now, so there is no price to judge.—
Quarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Ryder BurtonJunior · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.01102nd
- Comp %
- 54.2
- TD
- 5
- Turnovers
- 44 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 19
Tayven JacksonSenior · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.472nd
- Comp %
- 72.3
- TD
- 17
- Turnovers
- 55 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| North Texasoffense | Offense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseUAB | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | +0.33 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.03 | 67th |
| 5th | 50.7% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 43.8% | 100th |
| 1st | +0.50 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.08 | 29th |
| 40th | +0.13 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.10 | 98th |
| 4th | 17.1% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 9.4% | 17th |
| UABoffense | Offense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseNorth Texas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69th | +0.08 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.16 | 121st |
| 76th | 42.1% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 45.5% | 119th |
| 104th | −0.01 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.31 | 133rd |
| 33rd | +0.14 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.02 | 68th |
| 123rd | 10.3% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 14.2% | 118th |
Team stats
| North TexasUNT | UABUAB | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −2.1119th | +1.143rd |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −2.0102nd | +0.869th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 62%10th | 50%74th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.6523rd | 3.08124th |
| Time of possession | 31:1225th | 28:3676th |
| Plays per game | 7211th | 6670th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +1 | +1 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 11 – 12 | 10 – 11 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 12.2%109th | 12.1%116th |
Season so far
UAB4–4 · 92nd-hardest schedule
L
at Illinois23–42covered +25.5
at Illinois23–42covered +25.5W
vs UL Monroe26–20missed −9.5
vs UL Monroe26–20missed −9.5L
at Louisiana14–21push +7
at Louisiana14–21push +7W
vs Navy24–20covered +6.5
vs Navy24–20covered +6.5Wvs Samford33–14missed −31
L
at Memphis13–38missed +14.5
at Memphis13–38missed +14.5W
vs East Carolina30–17covered +4.5
vs East Carolina30–17covered +4.5L
at South Florida10–30missed +7.5
at South Florida10–30missed +7.5North Texas6–2 · 87th-hardest schedule
L
at Indiana16–52covered +40
at Indiana16–52covered +40W
vs UNLV44–6covered +3
vs UNLV44–6covered +3L
at Texas State35–49missed +3
at Texas State35–49missed +3Wvs Houston Christian63–14covered −38.5
W
at Tulsa45–44missed −2.5
at Tulsa45–44missed −2.5W
vs Charlotte50–10covered −28
vs Charlotte50–10covered −28Wat Navy49–39covered −3
at Navy49–39covered −3W
vs Florida Atlantic48–41missed −14.5
vs Florida Atlantic48–41missed −14.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 27, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is