Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
Charlotte
1–7 · Ours #138 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
10–50FinalWe had CLT 15 – UNT 46
North Texas
6–2 · Ours #60 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UNT 97%UNT won
UNT 97%UNT wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UNT −25.5.UNT −28oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −31 · UNT covered by 12
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 60.7.58final 60 · over by 2
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UNT −27.5Wbeat the close by 0.5
UNT −27.5Wbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Conner Harrell15/22 · 218 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1128th pct
- Comp %
- 68.2
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Tayven Jackson24/31 · 349 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.6593rd pct
- Comp %
- 77.4
- TD
- 5
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Relieved in Q3 by Chaston Ditta
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Charlotteoffense | Played like UNT +32.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseNorth Texas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18th | 32.3%▼3.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 32.3%▲14.0 | 82nd |
| 45th | +0.01▲0.06 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.01▲0.17 | 56th |
| 49th | +0.05▲0.12 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.05▲0.49 | 51st |
| 40th | −0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.03▼0.02 | 60th |
| 15th | 2▼0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.3 | 85th |
| North Texasoffense | defenseCharlotte | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84th | 52.6%▲4.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 52.6%▼0.9 | 16th |
| 98th | +0.62▲0.38 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.62▼0.41 | 2nd |
| 93rd | +0.65▲0.23 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.65▼0.38 | 7th |
| 96th | +0.55▲0.50 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.55▼0.40 | 4th |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.5 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| CharlotteCLT | North TexasUNT | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2311th | Own 3586th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.0 pts76th | +0.5 pts60th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 317th | 3814th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −23.16th | +23.194th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 08th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.3 pts33rd | 0.0 pts42nd |
| SafetiesSafeties scored. | 049th | 199th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UNT +11.7: turnovers +5.2, field position +4.4, kicking −0.4, 4th downs +0.4, penalty first downs −0.8, safeties +2.9. | −11.77th | +11.794th |
Season so far
Charlotte1–7 · 64th-hardest schedule
Lvs The Citadel41–43missed −20.5
L
at Ole Miss9–41covered +45
at Ole Miss9–41covered +45L
at App State21–26covered +17.5
at App State21–26covered +17.5L
vs Louisiana7–34missed +9.5
vs Louisiana7–34missed +9.5L
vs Memphis8–59missed +20.5
vs Memphis8–59missed +20.5Lat North Texas10–50missed +28
at North Texas10–50missed +28W
at Temple38–31covered +17.5
at Temple38–31covered +17.5L
vs Tulane31–38covered +8.5
vs Tulane31–38covered +8.5North Texas6–2 · 87th-hardest schedule
L
at Indiana16–52covered +40
at Indiana16–52covered +40W
vs UNLV44–6covered +3
vs UNLV44–6covered +3L
at Texas State35–49missed +3
at Texas State35–49missed +3Wvs Houston Christian63–14covered −38.5
W
at Tulsa45–44missed −2.5
at Tulsa45–44missed −2.5Wvs Charlotte50–10covered −28
vs Charlotte50–10covered −28W
at Navy49–39covered −3
at Navy49–39covered −3W
vs Florida Atlantic48–41missed −14.5
vs Florida Atlantic48–41missed −14.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is