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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

UAB

4–4 FBS · American Athletic · this season
Rating
−10.5
Rank
119
Résumé
85
Projected wins
5.9▲ 0.9 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Thu, Sep 39/3at IllinoisILLUAB +12.7UAB +28.5L 23–4243UAB · W
Sat, Sep 129/12UL MonroeULMUAB −17.6UAB −10.5W 26–2070UAB · L
Sat, Sep 199/19at LouisianaULUAB +2.8UAB +9.0L 14–2147UAB · W
Fri, Sep 259/25NavyNAVYUAB −6.9UAB +12.0W 24–2051UAB · W
Sat, Oct 310/3SamfordSamfordUAB −25.1UAB −31.0W 33–1479
Sat, Oct 1010/10at MemphisMEMUAB +15.5UAB +14.5L 13–3821MEM · W
Thu, Oct 1510/15East CarolinaECUUAB +7.4UAB +4.5W 30–1758ECU · L
Sat, Oct 3110/31at South FloridaUSFUAB +8.8UAB +7.5L 10–30—USF · W
Sat, Nov 711/7CharlotteCLTUAB −13.2—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at TempleTEMUAB +4.5—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21UTSAUTSAUAB +10.7—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at North TexasUNTUAB +16.5—wk 13

Model on UAB games: 5–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–2 · as the dog 3–0 · home 3–1, away 2–1 · avg gap to the market +6.3 · closer than the market 4 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
5.94–4 banked, 4 to play · preseason 5.0
Bowl (6+)26%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 1.9 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game2%
Win conference1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0869th
Success rate42.1%76th
Pass EPA−0.01107th
Rush EPA+0.1433rd
Explosive rate10.3%122nd
Quality-drive rate50.0%74th
Points per quality drive3.1125th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0366th
Success allowed43.8%100th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0830th
Rush EPA allowed+0.1099th
Explosive allowed9.4%18th
Havoc rate12.1%115th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.143rd
Turnover margin+165th · exp. +2.0
Field position margin+0.8 yd70th
Hidden points / game−1.8gave up
Luck, wins−0.84.8 earned
One-score record2–1flipped 3–5
Rush rate over expected+9.9%8th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−10.5119th
Schedule played−3.293rd
Schedule remaining−5.998th
Full schedule−4.292nd
Pregame expected wins3.2of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 119th · −10.5Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUUABgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
UABoff +0.08 69thdef +0.03 allowed · 66th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.