Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
North Carolina
4–3 · Ours #59 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
21–17FinalWe had UNC 20 – PITT 28
AP #25Pittsburgh
5–3 · Ours #41 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.PITT 70%UNC won
PITT 70%UNC wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at PITT −3.5.PITT −3.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −8.4 · UNC covered by 7.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 48.3.47final 38 · under by 9
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.PITT −4Llost 0.5 to the close
PITT −4Llost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Billy Edwards Jr.18/26 · 249 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0948th pct
- Comp %
- 69.2
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Holden Geriner27/44 · 219 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2022nd pct
- Comp %
- 61.4
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| North Carolinaoffense | Played like UNC +1.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defensePittsburgh | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33rd | 37.3%▼6.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 37.3%▼0.4 | 67th |
| 24th | −0.12▼0.11 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.12▲0.18 | 76th |
| 52nd | +0.09▲0.17 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.09▲0.09 | 48th |
| 6th | −0.40▼0.46 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.40▲0.31 | 95th |
| 15th | 2▼1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.7 | 85th |
| Pittsburghoffense | defenseNorth Carolina | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47th | 41.2%▼1.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.2%▲1.9 | 53rd |
| 14th | −0.21▼0.32 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.21▲0.26 | 87th |
| 25th | −0.20▼0.33 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.20▲0.28 | 75th |
| 15th | −0.23▼0.28 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.23▲0.25 | 85th |
| 4th | 3▼2.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 3▲2.4 | 96th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| North CarolinaUNC | PittsburghPITT | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3379th | Own 3168th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | −0.6 pts27th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5133rd | 8599th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +5.166th | −5.134th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts50th | −1.0 pts6th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 043rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UNC +9.3: turnovers +2.6, field position +0.7, kicking +0.4, 4th downs +1.4, return touchdowns +4.2. | +9.387th | −9.313th |
Season so far
North Carolina4–3 · 15th-hardest schedule
W
at TCU15–10covered +7.5
at TCU15–10covered +7.5Wvs East Tennessee State35–3missed −35.5
L
at Clemson20–28missed +3
at Clemson20–28missed +3L
vs Notre Dame26–37covered +21
vs Notre Dame26–37covered +21Wat Pittsburgh21–17covered +3.5
at Pittsburgh21–17covered +3.5W
at Duke24–20covered +3
at Duke24–20covered +3L
vs Syracuse30–31missed −9.5
vs Syracuse30–31missed −9.5Pittsburgh5–3 · 44th-hardest schedule
W
vs Miami (OH)59–14covered −16.5
vs Miami (OH)59–14covered −16.5W
vs UCF12–7missed −7
vs UCF12–7missed −7Wvs Syracuse27–13covered −10.5
vs Syracuse27–13covered −10.5Wvs Bucknell59–0covered −54.5
W
at Virginia Tech35–33covered +2
at Virginia Tech35–33covered +2Lvs North Carolina17–21missed −3.5
vs North Carolina17–21missed −3.5L
at Boston College21–27missed −6.5
at Boston College21–27missed −6.5L
at Miami23–52missed +20.5
at Miami23–52missed +20.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is