Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
North Carolina
4–3 · Ours #48 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–20FinalWe had UNC 24 – DUKE 28
Duke
6–2 · Ours #38 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.DUKE 59%UNC won
DUKE 59%UNC wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at DUKE −3.5.DUKE −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −3.4 · UNC covered by 7
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 51.7.46final 44 · under by 2
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UNC +3.5Wbeat the close by 0.5
UNC +3.5Wbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Billy Edwards Jr.15/25 · 196 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0647th pct
- Comp %
- 60.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Walker Eget24/40 · 249 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2061st pct
- Comp %
- 60.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| North Carolinaoffense | Played like UNC +0.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseDuke | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70th | 47.6%▲5.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 47.6%▼9.0 | 30th |
| 45th | +0.02▲0.06 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.02▼0.04 | 55th |
| 51st | +0.06▲0.14 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.06▼0.08 | 49th |
| 42nd | −0.01 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.01▼0.01 | 58th |
| 41st | 1▲0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.2 | 59th |
| Dukeoffense | defenseNorth Carolina | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41st | 39.4%▼0.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 39.4%▲4.1 | 59th |
| 48th | +0.04▼0.07 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.04▼0.04 | 52nd |
| 57th | +0.14▲0.01 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.14▼0.12 | 43rd |
| 30th | −0.10▼0.18 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.10▲0.09 | 70th |
| 41st | 1▼0.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| North CarolinaUNC | DukeDUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2628th | Own 3165th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.3 pts56th | +0.3 pts57th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6363rd | 7183rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +11.681st | −11.619th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.5 pts79th | −0.1 pts38th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. DUKE +7.8: turnovers +2.6, field position +1.9, 4th downs −0.9, return touchdowns +4.2. | −7.817th | +7.883rd |
Season so far
North Carolina4–3 · 15th-hardest schedule
W
at TCU15–10covered +7.5
at TCU15–10covered +7.5Wvs East Tennessee State35–3missed −35.5
L
at Clemson20–28missed +3
at Clemson20–28missed +3L
vs Notre Dame26–37covered +21
vs Notre Dame26–37covered +21W
at Pittsburgh21–17covered +3.5
at Pittsburgh21–17covered +3.5Wat Duke24–20covered +3
at Duke24–20covered +3L
vs Syracuse30–31missed −9.5
vs Syracuse30–31missed −9.5Duke6–2 · 86th-hardest schedule
W
vs Tulane17–3covered −9
vs Tulane17–3covered −9W
at Illinois31–27covered +6.5
at Illinois31–27covered +6.5W
vs Stanford35–7covered −10
vs Stanford35–7covered −10Wvs William & Mary62–7covered −43.5
L
at Georgia Tech25–28missed −4.5
at Georgia Tech25–28missed −4.5Lvs North Carolina20–24missed −3
vs North Carolina20–24missed −3W
at Virginia19–16covered +2.5
at Virginia19–16covered +2.5W
vs Boston College47–2covered −7
vs Boston College47–2covered −7Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is