Week 9 report · Wed, Oct 28 · 2026 Week 9
Jacksonville State
6–2 · Ours #91 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–0FinalWe had JXST 27 – NMSU 21
New Mexico State
3–5 · Ours #116 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.JXST 64%JXST won
JXST 64%JXST wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at JXST −2.5.JXST −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −5.6 · JXST covered by 21
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 48.3.50.5final 24 · under by 26.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.JXST −3Wmatched the close
JXST −3Wmatched the closeThe matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Jacksonville Stateoffense | Played like JXST +20.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseNew Mexico State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91st | 57.8%▲13.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 57.8%▼19.0 | 9th |
| 69th | +0.19▲0.08 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.19▼0.19 | 31st |
| 21st | −0.25▼0.46 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.25▲0.34 | 79th |
| 90th | +0.36▲0.36 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.36▼0.44 | 11th |
| 15th | 2▼1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.3 | 85th |
| New Mexico Stateoffense | defenseJacksonville State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28th | 35.8%▼2.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 35.8%▲7.7 | 72nd |
| 16th | −0.19▼0.09 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.19▲0.27 | 84th |
| 1st | −1.01▼0.86 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −1.01▲1.12 | 99th |
| 85th | +0.31▲0.35 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.31▼0.27 | 15th |
| 41st | 1▲0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Jacksonville StateJXST | New Mexico StateNMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3480th | Own 2844th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6466th | 5336th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +21.393rd | −21.37th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts68th | −0.7 pts13th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. JXST +0.8: turnovers −2.6, field position +2.1, 4th downs +1.3. | +0.854th | −0.846th |
Season so far
Jacksonville State6–2 · 121st-hardest schedule
L
at North Dakota State7–33missed +6.5
at North Dakota State7–33missed +6.5Wvs Eastern Kentucky49–7covered −22.5
L
at Ohio27–29push +2
at Ohio27–29push +2W
vs Georgia Southern31–27covered −3.5
vs Georgia Southern31–27covered −3.5W
vs Middle Tennessee23–13no line
vs Middle Tennessee23–13no lineW
at Kennesaw State27–26missed −3
at Kennesaw State27–26missed −3W
vs Florida International27–24push −3
vs Florida International27–24push −3Wat New Mexico State24–0covered −3
at New Mexico State24–0covered −3New Mexico State3–5 · 111th-hardest schedule
L
at Florida State17–34covered +31
at Florida State17–34covered +31Wvs Mercyhurst51–14covered −29
L
at Hawai'i19–29missed +7.5
at Hawai'i19–29missed +7.5L
vs New Mexico18–42missed +11.5
vs New Mexico18–42missed +11.5W
vs Western Kentucky34–13covered −2
vs Western Kentucky34–13covered −2Lat Florida International3–22missed +7
at Florida International3–22missed +7W
at Sam Houston30–24covered −3
at Sam Houston30–24covered −3Lvs Jacksonville State0–24missed +3
vs Jacksonville State0–24missed +3Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 28, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is