Memphis
6–2 · Ours #54Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
30–30Our projected score
Navy
2–6 · Ours #92Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.MEM 51%
MEM 51%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. MEM PK
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 59.9
Our call · No priceNeither DraftKings nor FanDuel is offering our side at our number right now, so there is no price to judge.—
Quarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Marcus StokesJunior · 8 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.2629th
- Comp %
- 66.8
- TD
- 21
- Turnovers
- 55 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 14
Jackson GutierrezJunior · 6 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.34
- Comp %
- 50.8
- TD
- 7
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 7
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Navyoffense | Offense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseMemphis | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5th | +0.29 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.05 | 73rd |
| 26th | 48.0% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 37.2% | 26th |
| 36th | +0.21 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.07 | 32nd |
| 1st | +0.31 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.16 | 119th |
| 41st | 13.8% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 14.6% | 123rd |
| Memphisoffense | Offense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseNavy | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41st | +0.15 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.13 | 109th |
| 23rd | 48.7% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 41.3% | 68th |
| 41st | +0.18 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.36 | 137th |
| 41st | +0.12 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.07 | 22nd |
| 9th | 16.4% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 11.1% | 56th |
Team stats
| NavyNAVY | MemphisMEM | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −2.0118th | −0.395th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −3.7120th | −1.393rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 46%95th | 52%62nd |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.1463rd | 3.9278th |
| Time of possession | 31:1824th | 28:1291st |
| Plays per game | 6488th | 7022nd |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | −6 | +3 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 13 – 7 | 14 – 17 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 13.5%80th | 13.5%81st |
Season so far
Memphis6–2 · 107th-hardest schedule
W
at UNLV27–21covered +5
at UNLV27–21covered +5W
vs Arkansas State42–24covered −11
vs Arkansas State42–24covered −11L
at Boise State20–38missed +9
at Boise State20–38missed +9Wvs UT Martin45–21missed −33.5
W
at Charlotte59–8covered −20.5
at Charlotte59–8covered −20.5W
vs UAB38–13covered −14.5
vs UAB38–13covered −14.5L
at Tulane17–31missed −6.5
at Tulane17–31missed −6.5W
vs East Carolina41–34missed −10.5
vs East Carolina41–34missed −10.5Navy2–6 · 66th-hardest schedule
Wvs Towson42–15missed −31.5
L
at Florida Atlantic30–38missed −4QB change mid-game
at Florida Atlantic30–38missed −4QB change mid-gameLat UAB20–24missed −6.5
at UAB20–24missed −6.5L
at Air Force9–14missed +3QB change mid-game
at Air Force9–14missed +3QB change mid-gameW
vs Tulsa34–26covered −3
vs Tulsa34–26covered −3L
at UTSA34–38covered +5.5
at UTSA34–38covered +5.5L
vs North Texas39–49missed +3
vs North Texas39–49missed +3L
vs Notre Dame13–35covered +31
vs Notre Dame13–35covered +31Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 27, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is