Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
Navy
2–6 · Ours #102 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
34–38FinalWe had NAVY 25 – UTSA 32
UTSA
7–1 · Ours #65 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UTSA 67%UTSA won
UTSA 67%UTSA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UTSA −6.5.UTSA −5.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −7.1 · NAVY covered by 1.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.7.54.5final 72 · over by 17.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UTSA −6.5Llost 1.0 to the close
UTSA −6.5Llost 1.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Jackson Gutierrez3/7 · 120 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.79
- Comp %
- 42.9
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Owen McCown28/38 · 359 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.5688th pct
- Comp %
- 73.7
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Navyoffense | Played like NAVY +7.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseUTSA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82nd | 51.9%▲9.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 51.9%▼11.8 | 18th |
| 91st | +0.42▲0.20 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.42▼0.31 | 9th |
| 100th | +1.26▲0.96 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +1.26▼1.13 | 1st |
| 82nd | +0.27▲0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.27▼0.19 | 18th |
| 79th | 0▲0.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
| UTSAoffense | defenseNavy | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59th | 44.3%▼0.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 44.3%▼1.9 | 41st |
| 78th | +0.27▲0.17 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.27▼0.17 | 22nd |
| 88th | +0.56▲0.55 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.56▼0.31 | 12th |
| 25th | −0.14▼0.32 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.14▲0.11 | 75th |
| 79th | 0▲0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| NavyNAVY | UTSAUTSA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2313th | Own 3270th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.8 pts13th | +0.6 pts64th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5438th | 7081st |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +6.770th | −6.730th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.2 pts34th | +0.4 pts72nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UTSA +4.0: field position +3.0, kicking +1.7, 4th downs +0.8, penalty first downs −1.5. | −4.031st | +4.069th |
Season so far
Navy2–6 · 66th-hardest schedule
Wvs Towson42–15missed −31.5
L
at Florida Atlantic30–38missed −4QB change mid-game
at Florida Atlantic30–38missed −4QB change mid-gameL
at UAB20–24missed −6.5
at UAB20–24missed −6.5L
at Air Force9–14missed +3QB change mid-game
at Air Force9–14missed +3QB change mid-gameW
vs Tulsa34–26covered −3
vs Tulsa34–26covered −3Lat UTSA34–38covered +5.5
at UTSA34–38covered +5.5L
vs North Texas39–49missed +3
vs North Texas39–49missed +3L
vs Notre Dame13–35covered +31
vs Notre Dame13–35covered +31UTSA7–1 · 89th-hardest schedule
Wvs UT Rio Grande Valley45–16covered −28.5
W
at Texas State31–26covered +2.5
at Texas State31–26covered +2.5L
at Texas6–30covered +30
at Texas6–30covered +30W
vs Colorado State59–45push −14
vs Colorado State59–45push −14W
at Rice16–14missed −12.5
at Rice16–14missed −12.5W
vs South Florida31–24covered −6
vs South Florida31–24covered −6Wvs Navy38–34missed −5.5
vs Navy38–34missed −5.5W
at Tulane42–19covered −3
at Tulane42–19covered −3Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 6:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is