Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
Michigan
5–3 · Ours #23 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
14–20FinalWe had MICH 30 – MINN 20
Minnesota
5–2 · Ours #56 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MICH 72%MINN won
MICH 72%MINN wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at MICH −6.5.MICH −6oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −9.1 · MINN covered by 12
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 50.0.41.5final 34 · under by 7.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.MICH −5.5Lbeat the close by 0.5
MICH −5.5Lbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Bryce Underwood10/21 · 101 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.534th pct
- Comp %
- 47.6
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Drake Lindsey17/25 · 136 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3810th pct
- Comp %
- 68.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Michiganoffense | Played like MINN +3.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMinnesota | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32nd | 36.7%▼4.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 36.7%▲6.1 | 69th |
| 9th | −0.28▼0.35 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.28▲0.21 | 91st |
| 6th | −0.53▼0.62 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.53▲0.40 | 94th |
| 40th | −0.03▼0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.03▲0.05 | 60th |
| 15th | 2▼1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.6 | 85th |
| Minnesotaoffense | defenseMichigan | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40th | 39.1%▲2.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 39.1%▼6.1 | 60th |
| 11th | −0.24▼0.14 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.24▲0.07 | 89th |
| 13th | −0.38▼0.35 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.38▲0.16 | 87th |
| 22nd | −0.16▲0.18 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.16 | 78th |
| 15th | 2▼1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.8 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| MichiganMICH | MinnesotaMINN | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3061st | Own 3583rd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +0.7 pts67th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4929th | 6466th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −5.833rd | +5.868th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 08th | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.4 pts26th | +0.3 pts68th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 043rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MINN +1.2: field position +1.6, kicking +0.5, 4th downs +0.9, penalty first downs +2.3, return touchdowns −4.2. | −1.244th | +1.256th |
Season so far
Michigan5–3 · 45th-hardest schedule
W
vs Western Michigan13–12missed −27.5
vs Western Michigan13–12missed −27.5W
vs Oklahoma17–10covered +5
vs Oklahoma17–10covered +5W
vs UTEP52–17covered −34.5
vs UTEP52–17covered −34.5L
vs Iowa19–20missed −5.5
vs Iowa19–20missed −5.5Lat Minnesota14–20missed −6
at Minnesota14–20missed −6W
vs Penn State21–18missed −5.5
vs Penn State21–18missed −5.5L
vs Indiana6–13covered +7.5
vs Indiana6–13covered +7.5W
at Rutgers28–21missed −16.5
at Rutgers28–21missed −16.5Minnesota5–2 · 59th-hardest schedule
Wvs Eastern Illinois59–7covered −42.5
L
vs Mississippi State13–38missed PK
vs Mississippi State13–38missed PKW
vs Akron41–7covered −23
vs Akron41–7covered −23W
at Washington27–24covered +12
at Washington27–24covered +12Wvs Michigan20–14covered +6
vs Michigan20–14covered +6L
at Purdue13–41missed −2.5
at Purdue13–41missed −2.5Wvs Iowa13–10covered +7.5
vs Iowa13–10covered +7.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is