Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
Akron
1–7 · Ours #126 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
7–41FinalWe had AKR 16 – MINN 36
Minnesota
5–2 · Ours #82 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MINN 87%MINN won
MINN 87%MINN wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at MINN −27.MINN −23oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −19.2 · MINN covered by 11
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 51.9.49.5final 48 · under by 1.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.AKR +26.5Lbeat the close by 3.5
AKR +26.5Lbeat the close by 3.5Quarterbacksthis game
Brayden Roggow12/25 · 131 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1526th pct
- Comp %
- 48.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Replaced Cibastian Broughton in Q2
Drake Lindsey17/31 · 204 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1328th pct
- Comp %
- 54.8
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Akronoffense | Played like MINN +12.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMinnesota | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16th | 31.2%▼9.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 31.2%▲12.7 | 84th |
| 7th | −0.32▼0.30 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.32▲0.26 | 93rd |
| 13th | −0.38▼0.28 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.38▲0.21 | 87th |
| 20th | −0.18▼0.24 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.18▲0.23 | 80th |
| 79th | 0▲1.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.8 | 21st |
| Minnesotaoffense | defenseAkron | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57th | 43.8%▲8.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 43.8%▲1.5 | 43rd |
| 22nd | −0.13▼0.01 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.13▲0.38 | 78th |
| 32nd | −0.13▼0.05 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.13▲0.29 | 69th |
| 24th | −0.14▲0.20 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.14▲0.33 | 76th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.5 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| AkronAKR | MinnesotaMINN | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 228th | Own 4399th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +1.2 pts80th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4828th | 4828th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −16.712th | +16.788th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts50th | +0.3 pts68th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MINN +7.7: field position +7.3, kicking +0.9, 4th downs +0.4, penalty first downs −0.8. | −7.718th | +7.783rd |
Season so far
Akron1–7 · 104th-hardest schedule
L
at Wake Forest16–38covered +27.5
at Wake Forest16–38covered +27.5Wvs Robert Morris45–10covered −26.5
Lat Minnesota7–41missed +23
at Minnesota7–41missed +23L
vs UNLV10–38missed +13.5
vs UNLV10–38missed +13.5L
at Central Michigan17–41missed +7
at Central Michigan17–41missed +7L
vs Eastern Michigan23–25covered +5.5
vs Eastern Michigan23–25covered +5.5L
at Miami (OH)14–34missed +9.5
at Miami (OH)14–34missed +9.5L
at Kent State20–35missed +3
at Kent State20–35missed +3Minnesota5–2 · 59th-hardest schedule
Wvs Eastern Illinois59–7covered −42.5
L
vs Mississippi State13–38missed PK
vs Mississippi State13–38missed PKWvs Akron41–7covered −23
vs Akron41–7covered −23W
at Washington27–24covered +12
at Washington27–24covered +12W
vs Michigan20–14covered +6
vs Michigan20–14covered +6L
at Purdue13–41missed −2.5
at Purdue13–41missed −2.5W
vs Iowa13–10covered +7.5
vs Iowa13–10covered +7.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is