Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
AP #15Iowa
6–2 · Ours #18 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
10–13FinalWe had IOWA 29 – MINN 18
Minnesota
5–2 · Ours #65 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.IOWA 77%MINN won
IOWA 77%MINN wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at IOWA −5.5.IOWA −7.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −11.7 · MINN covered by 10.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 46.8.40.5final 23 · under by 17.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.IOWA −7Lbeat the close by 0.5
IOWA −7Lbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Hank Brown11/21 · 124 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.457th pct
- Comp %
- 52.4
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Replaced Jeremy Hecklinski in Q2
Drake Lindsey14/26 · 137 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.486th pct
- Comp %
- 53.8
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Iowaoffense | Played like IOWA +1.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMinnesota | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22nd | 33.8%▼9.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 33.8%▲9.6 | 78th |
| 7th | −0.33▼0.40 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.33▲0.28 | 93rd |
| 10th | −0.44▼0.55 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.44▲0.28 | 90th |
| 20th | −0.19▼0.22 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.19▲0.23 | 80th |
| 1st | 4▼3.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 4▲3.0 | 99th |
| Minnesotaoffense | defenseIowa | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9th | 27.4%▼11.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 27.4%▲5.9 | 91st |
| 6th | −0.35▼0.26 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.35▲0.28 | 94th |
| 8th | −0.49▼0.48 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.49▲0.61 | 92nd |
| 17th | −0.21▲0.12 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.21▼0.05 | 83rd |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.6 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| IowaIOWA | MinnesotaMINN | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3584th | Own 2954th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.5 pts60th | +1.5 pts86th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6569th | 6260th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +0.251st | −0.249th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.4 pts75th | +0.3 pts68th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MINN +6.4: turnovers +7.8, field position −2.0, kicking +0.7, 4th downs −0.2. | −6.422nd | +6.478th |
Season so far
Iowa6–2 · 42nd-hardest schedule
W
vs Northern Illinois40–0covered −31
vs Northern Illinois40–0covered −31W
vs Iowa State16–13missed −14
vs Iowa State16–13missed −14Wvs Northern Iowa55–0covered −37.5
W
at Michigan20–19covered +5.5
at Michigan20–19covered +5.5L
vs Ohio State14–31missed +14.5
vs Ohio State14–31missed +14.5W
at Washington41–24covered +3
at Washington41–24covered +3Lat Minnesota10–13missed −7.5QB change mid-game
at Minnesota10–13missed −7.5QB change mid-gameW
vs Wisconsin30–0covered −2.5
vs Wisconsin30–0covered −2.5Minnesota5–2 · 59th-hardest schedule
Wvs Eastern Illinois59–7covered −42.5
L
vs Mississippi State13–38missed PK
vs Mississippi State13–38missed PKW
vs Akron41–7covered −23
vs Akron41–7covered −23Wat Washington27–24covered +12
at Washington27–24covered +12Wvs Michigan20–14covered +6
vs Michigan20–14covered +6L
at Purdue13–41missed −2.5
at Purdue13–41missed −2.5Wvs Iowa13–10covered +7.5
vs Iowa13–10covered +7.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is