Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
Nebraska
5–2 · Ours #28 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
31–13FinalWe had NEB 28 – MSU 24
Michigan State
2–6 · Ours #39 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.NEB 59%NEB won
NEB 59%NEB wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at NEB −4.5.NEB −6oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −3.5 · NEB covered by 12
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 51.8.49final 44 · under by 5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Anthony Colandrea15/27 · 212 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3977th pct
- Comp %
- 55.6
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Alessio Milivojevic18/26 · 208 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1823rd pct
- Comp %
- 69.2
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Nebraskaoffense | Played like NEB +7.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMichigan State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53rd | 42.4%▼3.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 42.4%▼0.1 | 47th |
| 52nd | +0.06▼0.13 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.06 | 48th |
| 80th | +0.39▲0.24 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.39▼0.29 | 20th |
| 22nd | −0.16▼0.42 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.16▲0.20 | 78th |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.4 | 21st |
| Michigan Stateoffense | defenseNebraska | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67th | 46.7%▲5.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 46.7%▼16.2 | 33rd |
| 21st | −0.15▼0.12 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.15▼0.04 | 80th |
| 19th | −0.27▼0.25 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.27▲0.02 | 81st |
| 43rd | 0.00▲0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | 0.00▼0.12 | 57th |
| 4th | 3▼2.1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 3▲1.8 | 96th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| NebraskaNEB | Michigan StateMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3583rd | Own 2629th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.5 pts60th | +0.5 pts62nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6672nd | 6055th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +1.755th | −1.745th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −1.2 pts4th | 0.0 pts50th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. NEB +10.2: turnovers +7.8, field position +3.2, kicking −0.1, 4th downs −1.6, penalty first downs +0.8. | +10.289th | −10.211th |
Season so far
Nebraska5–2 · 54th-hardest schedule
W
vs Ohio49–21covered −24
vs Ohio49–21covered −24W
vs Bowling Green56–7covered −30.5
vs Bowling Green56–7covered −30.5Wvs North Dakota34–7missed −27.5
Wat Michigan State31–13covered −6
at Michigan State31–13covered −6W
vs Maryland48–23covered −15
vs Maryland48–23covered −15L
vs Indiana17–20covered +9
vs Indiana17–20covered +9L
at Oregon14–17covered +6.5
at Oregon14–17covered +6.5Michigan State2–6 · 16th-hardest schedule
W
vs Toledo30–20push −10
vs Toledo30–20push −10W
vs Eastern Michigan35–7covered −17.5
vs Eastern Michigan35–7covered −17.5L
at Notre Dame10–27covered +29
at Notre Dame10–27covered +29Lvs Nebraska13–31missed +6
vs Nebraska13–31missed +6L
at Wisconsin3–31missed +8.5
at Wisconsin3–31missed +8.5L
vs Illinois37–38covered +2.5
vs Illinois37–38covered +2.5L
vs Northwestern21–24covered +7
vs Northwestern21–24covered +7L
at UCLA10–28missed +16
at UCLA10–28missed +16Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 4:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is