Board · Sat, Nov 7 · time TBD · Week 10Week 10 report
Michigan State
2–6 · Ours #68Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
17–28Our projected score
Michigan
5–3 · Ours #38Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.MICH 75%
MICH 75%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.MICH −14oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −11.2 · first seenThe first DraftKings or FanDuel number we captured for this game. −16.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.39.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 44.9 · first seen 50.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.MSU +14.0-105 DraftKings51% to cover · -0.2% EV
MSU +14.0-105 DraftKings51% to cover · -0.2% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Michigan State
No passer on record this season
Tommy CarrFreshman · 1 start this year · 2 relief appearances
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.18
- Comp %
- 65.9
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
New starter last game
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Michiganoffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseMichigan State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100th | +0.02 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.06 | 84th |
| 101st | 40.7% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 43.5% | 96th |
| 93rd | +0.02 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.13 | 99th |
| 97th | +0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.01 | 58th |
| 115th | 10.6% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 11.1% | 58th |
| Michigan Stateoffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseMichigan | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 124th | −0.05 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | −0.17 | 3rd |
| 85th | 41.5% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 34.5% | 10th |
| 114th | −0.06 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.21 | 6th |
| 120th | −0.04 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.14 | 5th |
| 135th | 8.5% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 7.9% | 5th |
Team stats
| MichiganMICH | Michigan StateMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −2.5123rd | +3.210th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −0.583rd | +0.966th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 41%124th | 49%86th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.29118th | 3.6297th |
| Time of possession | 28:4273rd | 19:42138th |
| Plays per game | 59128th | 62104th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | −2 | −4 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 13 – 11 | 13 – 9 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 14.7%57th | 12.4%104th |
Season so far
Michigan State2–6 · 16th-hardest schedule
W
vs Toledo30–20push −10
vs Toledo30–20push −10W
vs Eastern Michigan35–7covered −17.5
vs Eastern Michigan35–7covered −17.5L
at Notre Dame10–27covered +29
at Notre Dame10–27covered +29L
vs Nebraska13–31missed +6
vs Nebraska13–31missed +6L
at Wisconsin3–31missed +8.5
at Wisconsin3–31missed +8.5L
vs Illinois37–38covered +2.5
vs Illinois37–38covered +2.5L
vs Northwestern21–24covered +7
vs Northwestern21–24covered +7L
at UCLA10–28missed +16
at UCLA10–28missed +16Michigan5–3 · 45th-hardest schedule
W
vs Western Michigan13–12missed −27.5
vs Western Michigan13–12missed −27.5W
vs Oklahoma17–10covered +5
vs Oklahoma17–10covered +5W
vs UTEP52–17covered −34.5
vs UTEP52–17covered −34.5L
vs Iowa19–20missed −5.5
vs Iowa19–20missed −5.5L
at Minnesota14–20missed −6
at Minnesota14–20missed −6W
vs Penn State21–18missed −5.5
vs Penn State21–18missed −5.5L
vs Indiana6–13covered +7.5
vs Indiana6–13covered +7.5W
at Rutgers28–21missed −16.5
at Rutgers28–21missed −16.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 6:20 PM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is