Week 1 report · Sat, Sep 5 · 2026 Week 1
Arkansas State
4–4 · Ours #100 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–42FinalWe had ARST 22 – MEM 35
Memphis
6–2 · Ours #51 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MEM 78%MEM won
MEM 78%MEM wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at MEM −9.5.MEM −11oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −12.8 · MEM covered by 7
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.7.52.5final 66 · over by 13.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.MEM −8.5Wbeat the close by 2.5
MEM −8.5Wbeat the close by 2.5Quarterbacksthis game
Trey Owens21/30 · 325 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0139th pct
- Comp %
- 70.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 44 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Marcus Stokes12/15 · 188 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4078th pct
- Comp %
- 80.0
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Arkansas Stateoffense | Played like MEM +9.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMemphis | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80th | 50.8%▲5.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 50.8%▼15.5 | 21st |
| 54th | +0.07▼0.01 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.07▼0.05 | 46th |
| 44th | −0.01▼0.17 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.01▼0.17 | 56th |
| 69th | +0.18▲0.20 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.18▲0.02 | 31st |
| 1st | 4▼3.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 4▲3.2 | 99th |
| Memphisoffense | defenseArkansas State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76th | 49.2%▲1.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 49.2%▼3.3 | 24th |
| 79th | +0.28▲0.17 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.28▼0.17 | 21st |
| 81st | +0.40▲0.25 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.40▼0.24 | 19th |
| 78th | +0.24▲0.19 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.24▼0.14 | 22nd |
| 15th | 2▼1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.2 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Arkansas StateARST | MemphisMEM | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3167th | Own 229th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.2 pts79th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5951st | 6363rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −3.838th | +3.862nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 251st |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MEM +1.3: turnovers +5.2, field position −3.1, kicking −0.8. | −1.344th | +1.356th |
Season so far
Arkansas State4–4 · 93rd-hardest schedule
Lat Memphis24–42missed +11
at Memphis24–42missed +11Wvs West Georgia52–7covered −31.5
L
at TCU7–31missed +19
at TCU7–31missed +19W
vs Kennesaw State17–14missed −6.5
vs Kennesaw State17–14missed −6.5L
at Louisiana20–23covered +5
at Louisiana20–23covered +5L
vs South Alabama49–56missed −3
vs South Alabama49–56missed −3W
at Southern Miss23–13covered −5.5
at Southern Miss23–13covered −5.5W
vs Georgia State38–32covered +2.5
vs Georgia State38–32covered +2.5Memphis6–2 · 107th-hardest schedule
W
at UNLV27–21covered +5
at UNLV27–21covered +5Wvs Arkansas State42–24covered −11
vs Arkansas State42–24covered −11L
at Boise State20–38missed +9
at Boise State20–38missed +9Wvs UT Martin45–21missed −33.5
W
at Charlotte59–8covered −20.5
at Charlotte59–8covered −20.5W
vs UAB38–13covered −14.5
vs UAB38–13covered −14.5L
at Tulane17–31missed −6.5
at Tulane17–31missed −6.5W
vs East Carolina41–34missed −10.5
vs East Carolina41–34missed −10.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 5, 5:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is