Week 8 report · Thu, Oct 22 · 2026 Week 8
East Carolina
4–4 · Ours #89 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
34–41FinalWe had ECU 22 – MEM 29
Memphis
6–2 · Ours #56 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MEM 66%MEM won
MEM 66%MEM wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at MEM −9.5.MEM −10.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −6.6 · ECU covered by 3.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 51.3.55final 75 · over by 20
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ECU +10.5Wmatched the close
ECU +10.5Wmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Mitch Griffis14/26 · 199 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1555th pct
- Comp %
- 53.8
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Replaced Emory Williams in Q2
Marcus Stokes29/43 · 320 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3676th pct
- Comp %
- 67.4
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| East Carolinaoffense | Played like MEM +7.5Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMemphis | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17th | 31.4%▼5.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 31.4%▲7.1 | 83rd |
| 47th | +0.03▲0.10 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.03 | 53rd |
| 47th | +0.03▲0.09 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.03▼0.21 | 53rd |
| 49th | +0.03▲0.11 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.03▲0.19 | 51st |
| 41st | 1▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.3 | 59th |
| Memphisoffense | defenseEast Carolina | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66th | 46.2%▼1.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 46.2%▼9.3 | 34th |
| 56th | +0.09▼0.05 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.09▼0.16 | 44th |
| 73rd | +0.30▲0.13 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.30▼0.51 | 27th |
| 21st | −0.17▼0.29 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.17▲0.18 | 79th |
| 79th | 0▲1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| East CarolinaECU | MemphisMEM | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3059th | Own 3584th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +2.6 pts98th | +1.0 pts74th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7081st | 7895th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −13.616th | +13.684th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +1.0 pts93rd | +1.0 pts93rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MEM +6.9: turnovers +7.8, field position +1.7, kicking −1.1, 4th downs +0.1, penalty first downs −1.5. | −6.920th | +6.980th |
Season so far
East Carolina4–4 · 96th-hardest schedule
L
at Alabama10–48missed +28
at Alabama10–48missed +28L
vs App State24–27missed −6.5
vs App State24–27missed −6.5W
at Old Dominion20–17covered +2.5
at Old Dominion20–17covered +2.5Wvs North Carolina Central42–9missed −37.5
W
vs Rice28–12covered −10
vs Rice28–12covered −10L
at UAB17–30missed −4.5
at UAB17–30missed −4.5Lat Memphis34–41covered +10.5QB change mid-game
at Memphis34–41covered +10.5QB change mid-gameW
vs Temple17–9covered −4
vs Temple17–9covered −4Memphis6–2 · 107th-hardest schedule
W
at UNLV27–21covered +5
at UNLV27–21covered +5W
vs Arkansas State42–24covered −11
vs Arkansas State42–24covered −11L
at Boise State20–38missed +9
at Boise State20–38missed +9Wvs UT Martin45–21missed −33.5
W
at Charlotte59–8covered −20.5
at Charlotte59–8covered −20.5Wvs UAB38–13covered −14.5
vs UAB38–13covered −14.5L
at Tulane17–31missed −6.5
at Tulane17–31missed −6.5Wvs East Carolina41–34missed −10.5
vs East Carolina41–34missed −10.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 22, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is