Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
Troy
4–4 · Ours #87 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
6–33FinalWe had TROY 23 – UL 28
Louisiana
5–3 · Ours #70 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UL 64%UL won
UL 64%UL wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UL −4.5.UL −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −5.7 · UL covered by 24
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 50.7.49.5final 39 · under by 10.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UL −4.5Wlost 1.5 to the close
UL −4.5Wlost 1.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Goose Crowder9/16 · 65 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.438th pct
- Comp %
- 56.3
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Relieved in Q2 by Tucker Kilcrease
Lunch Winfield11/21 · 70 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0141st pct
- Comp %
- 52.4
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Troyoffense | Played like UL +10.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseLouisiana | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33rd | 37.2%▼1.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 37.2%▲3.5 | 67th |
| 36th | −0.04 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.04 | 64th |
| 7th | −0.50▼0.34 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.50▲0.52 | 93rd |
| 91st | +0.40▲0.32 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.40▼0.52 | 9th |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
| Louisianaoffense | defenseTroy | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69th | 47.4%▲7.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 47.4%▼7.1 | 31st |
| 59th | +0.11▲0.02 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.11▼0.10 | 41st |
| 44th | 0.00▼0.02 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | 0.00▲0.06 | 56th |
| 69th | +0.17▲0.06 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.17▼0.25 | 31st |
| 79th | 0▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.8 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| TroyTROY | LouisianaUL | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2313th | Own 3689th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −2.1 pts9th | +2.0 pts94th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4321st | 5745th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −9.424th | +9.476th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 08th | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.9 pts10th | 0.0 pts50th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UL +12.9: turnovers +2.6, field position +4.6, kicking +3.0, 4th downs +1.1, penalty first downs +1.5. | −12.95th | +12.995th |
Season so far
Troy4–4 · 106th-hardest schedule
W
vs Sam Houston24–21missed −16.5
vs Sam Houston24–21missed −16.5Wvs Alabama State34–17missed −23.5
L
at Missouri17–27covered +27
at Missouri17–27covered +27L
at Utah State10–21missed +3
at Utah State10–21missed +3W
vs Southern Miss55–34covered −10
vs Southern Miss55–34covered −10Lat Louisiana6–33missed +3
at Louisiana6–33missed +3L
vs UL Monroe14–21missed −13
vs UL Monroe14–21missed −13W
at James Madison24–21covered +19.5
at James Madison24–21covered +19.5Louisiana5–3 · 120th-hardest schedule
Wvs Lamar38–7covered −20.5
L
at USC30–49covered +31
at USC30–49covered +31W
vs UAB21–14push −7
vs UAB21–14push −7W
at Charlotte34–7covered −9.5
at Charlotte34–7covered −9.5W
vs Arkansas State23–20missed −5
vs Arkansas State23–20missed −5L
at Louisiana Tech31–32covered +3
at Louisiana Tech31–32covered +3Wvs Troy33–6covered −3
vs Troy33–6covered −3Lat Southern Miss31–35missed −10
at Southern Miss31–35missed −10Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is