Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
UAB
4–4 · Ours #125 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
14–21FinalWe had UAB 29 – UL 32
Louisiana
5–3 · Ours #74 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UL 57%UL won
UL 57%UL wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UL −9.5.UL −7oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −2.8 · push
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 61.0.55.5final 35 · under by 20.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UAB +9Wbeat the close by 2.0
UAB +9Wbeat the close by 2.0Quarterbacksthis game
Ryder Burton15/26 · 144 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0141st pct
- Comp %
- 57.7
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Lunch Winfield14/19 · 110 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.672nd pct
- Comp %
- 73.7
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UABoffense | Played like UL +3.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseLouisiana | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27th | 35.7%▼5.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 35.7%▲5.3 | 73rd |
| 24th | −0.12▼0.20 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.12▲0.09 | 76th |
| 43rd | −0.01▲0.04 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.01▼0.05 | 57th |
| 14th | −0.25▼0.38 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.25▲0.23 | 86th |
| 41st | 1▼0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.2 | 59th |
| Louisianaoffense | defenseUAB | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25th | 34.8%▼7.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 34.8%▲13.0 | 75th |
| 31st | −0.07▼0.20 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.07▲0.19 | 69th |
| 4th | −0.67▼0.79 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.67▲0.76 | 96th |
| 71st | +0.19▲0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.19▼0.08 | 29th |
| 79th | 0▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.4 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UABUAB | LouisianaUL | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2630th | Own 3166th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5643rd | 6978th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −0.549th | +0.551st |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 486th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −1.7 pts1st | +0.1 pts59th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UL +3.8: turnovers −2.6, field position +1.9, 4th downs +2.3, penalty first downs +2.3. | −3.832nd | +3.868th |
Season so far
UAB4–4 · 92nd-hardest schedule
L
at Illinois23–42covered +25.5
at Illinois23–42covered +25.5W
vs UL Monroe26–20missed −9.5
vs UL Monroe26–20missed −9.5Lat Louisiana14–21push +7
at Louisiana14–21push +7W
vs Navy24–20covered +6.5
vs Navy24–20covered +6.5Wvs Samford33–14missed −31
L
at Memphis13–38missed +14.5
at Memphis13–38missed +14.5W
vs East Carolina30–17covered +4.5
vs East Carolina30–17covered +4.5L
at South Florida10–30missed +7.5
at South Florida10–30missed +7.5Louisiana5–3 · 120th-hardest schedule
Wvs Lamar38–7covered −20.5
L
at USC30–49covered +31
at USC30–49covered +31Wvs UAB21–14push −7
vs UAB21–14push −7W
at Charlotte34–7covered −9.5
at Charlotte34–7covered −9.5W
vs Arkansas State23–20missed −5
vs Arkansas State23–20missed −5L
at Louisiana Tech31–32covered +3
at Louisiana Tech31–32covered +3W
vs Troy33–6covered −3
vs Troy33–6covered −3L
at Southern Miss31–35missed −10
at Southern Miss31–35missed −10Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is