Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
Louisiana
5–3 · Ours #68 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
31–32FinalWe had UL 25 – LT 25
Louisiana Tech
6–2 · Ours #99 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.LT 51%LT won
LT 51%LT wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at LT −2.5.LT −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. PK · UL covered by 2
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 50.6.48final 63 · over by 15
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UL +2.5Wlost 0.5 to the close
UL +2.5Wlost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Lunch Winfield14/24 · 239 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1757th pct
- Comp %
- 58.3
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Blake Baker32/42 · 319 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4381st pct
- Comp %
- 76.2
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Louisianaoffense | Played like LT +14.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseLouisiana Tech | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27th | 35.7%▼6.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 35.7%▲2.1 | 73rd |
| 64th | +0.15▲0.06 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.15▼0.26 | 36th |
| 61st | +0.17▲0.19 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.17▼0.31 | 39th |
| 63rd | +0.13▲0.01 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.13▼0.25 | 37th |
| 15th | 2▼1.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.2 | 85th |
| Louisiana Techoffense | defenseLouisiana | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84th | 52.6%▲16.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 52.6%▼14.4 | 16th |
| 86th | +0.35▲0.38 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.35▼0.46 | 14th |
| 84th | +0.46▲0.42 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.46▼0.60 | 16th |
| 71st | +0.19▲0.26 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.19▼0.28 | 29th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.2 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| LouisianaUL | Louisiana TechLT | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2843rd | Own 3164th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.4 pts58th | −1.8 pts13th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5643rd | 7693rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −5.234th | +5.266th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 594th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts50th | +0.5 pts78th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UL +0.3: turnovers −2.6, field position −1.1, kicking +1.5, 4th downs −0.6, penalty first downs +3.1. | +0.351st | −0.349th |
Season so far
Louisiana5–3 · 120th-hardest schedule
Wvs Lamar38–7covered −20.5
L
at USC30–49covered +31
at USC30–49covered +31W
vs UAB21–14push −7
vs UAB21–14push −7W
at Charlotte34–7covered −9.5
at Charlotte34–7covered −9.5W
vs Arkansas State23–20missed −5
vs Arkansas State23–20missed −5Lat Louisiana Tech31–32covered +3
at Louisiana Tech31–32covered +3W
vs Troy33–6covered −3
vs Troy33–6covered −3L
at Southern Miss31–35missed −10
at Southern Miss31–35missed −10Louisiana Tech6–2 · 79th-hardest schedule
Wvs Northwestern State80–6covered −44.5
L
at LSU14–45covered +35
at LSU14–45covered +35L
at Baylor19–36covered +20
at Baylor19–36covered +20W
vs Army31–29covered −1
vs Army31–29covered −1Wvs Louisiana32–31missed −3
vs Louisiana32–31missed −3W
at UL Monroe24–0covered −13.5
at UL Monroe24–0covered −13.5W
vs Old Dominion26–0covered −14
vs Old Dominion26–0covered −14W
at South Alabama35–20covered −6
at South Alabama35–20covered −6Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is