Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
Vanderbilt
3–5 · Ours #79 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
17–34FinalWe had VAN 22 – UK 34
AP #12Kentucky
7–1 · Ours #19 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UK 77%UK won
UK 77%UK wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UK −11.UK −11oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −12 · UK covered by 6
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.5.51.5final 51 · under by 0.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UK −10.5Wbeat the close by 0.5
UK −10.5Wbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Jared Curtis27/36 · 247 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1454th pct
- Comp %
- 75.0
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Kenny Minchey19/26 · 203 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3273rd pct
- Comp %
- 73.1
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Vanderbiltoffense | Played like UK +16.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseKentucky | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42nd | 40.0%▲0.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.0%▲3.9 | 58th |
| 46th | +0.02▼0.02 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.02▲0.01 | 54th |
| 61st | +0.18▲0.16 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.18▼0.21 | 39th |
| 7th | −0.37▼0.45 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.37▲0.50 | 93rd |
| 15th | 2▼0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2 | 85th |
| Kentuckyoffense | defenseVanderbilt | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87th | 54.2%▲8.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 54.2%▼8.0 | 13th |
| 82nd | +0.31▲0.27 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.31▼0.20 | 18th |
| 75th | +0.32▲0.33 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.32▼0.15 | 25th |
| 84th | +0.29▲0.20 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.29▼0.24 | 16th |
| 79th | 0▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| VanderbiltVAN | KentuckyUK | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2740th | Own 3892nd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.4 pts58th | +1.7 pts90th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5030th | 5951st |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −10.720th | +10.780th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.5 pts78th | +0.3 pts68th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UK +10.3: turnovers +5.2, field position +3.6, kicking +0.9, 4th downs −0.3, penalty first downs +0.8. | −10.310th | +10.390th |
Season so far
Vanderbilt3–5 · 17th-hardest schedule
Wvs Austin Peay28–9missed −28.5
W
vs Delaware35–26missed −20.5
vs Delaware35–26missed −20.5W
vs NC State35–31covered −3
vs NC State35–31covered −3L
at Auburn15–21covered +10
at Auburn15–21covered +10L
at Georgia14–38covered +26
at Georgia14–38covered +26L
vs Ole Miss17–52missed +9.5
vs Ole Miss17–52missed +9.5L
vs Arkansas21–31missed −5.5
vs Arkansas21–31missed −5.5Lat Kentucky17–34missed +11
at Kentucky17–34missed +11Kentucky7–1 · 8th-hardest schedule
Wvs Youngstown State45–13covered −22.5
L
vs Alabama17–45missed +9
vs Alabama17–45missed +9W
at Texas A&M31–21covered +16.5
at Texas A&M31–21covered +16.5W
vs South Alabama45–21covered −20.5
vs South Alabama45–21covered −20.5W
at South Carolina35–34covered +2.5
at South Carolina35–34covered +2.5W
vs LSU35–34covered +9.5
vs LSU35–34covered +9.5W
at Oklahoma21–13covered +7
at Oklahoma21–13covered +7Wvs Vanderbilt34–17covered −11
vs Vanderbilt34–17covered −11Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is