Board · Sat, Nov 7 · 6:15 PM ET · Week 10Week 10 report
AP #9Kentucky
7–1 · Ours #19Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–28Our projected score
AP #16Tennessee
6–2 · Ours #12Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.TENN 61%
TENN 61%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.TENN −5.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −4.4 · first seenThe first DraftKings or FanDuel number we captured for this game. −5.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.49.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 51.4 · first seen 49.5
Our call · LeanCollege: our number and the price say the side is worth more than the vig, but the record at these lines is a coin flip, so it is a lean, not a play.UK +6.5-110 FanDuel53% to cover · +1.0% EV
UK +6.5-110 FanDuel53% to cover · +1.0% EVThe matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Tennesseeoffense | Defense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseKentucky | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70th | +0.08 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.04 | 69th |
| 56th | 44.2% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 44.1% | 105th |
| 130th | −0.14 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.01 | 48th |
| 9th | +0.23 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.11 | 104th |
| 104th | 11.0% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 10.9% | 50th |
| Kentuckyoffense | Defense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseTennessee | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60th | +0.09 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | −0.14 | 7th |
| 27th | 48.0% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 38.9% | 37th |
| 88th | +0.03 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.30 | 1st |
| 27th | +0.16 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.07 | 88th |
| 63rd | 12.8% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 10.4% | 33rd |
Team stats
| TennesseeTENN | KentuckyUK | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +1.147th | −1.4111th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +2.937th | +3.036th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 50%74th | 54%46th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.2754th | 4.8413th |
| Time of possession | 30:4232nd | 29:1857th |
| Plays per game | 6938th | 6494th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +6 | +10 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 10 – 16 | 8 – 18 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 20.4%3rd | 14.9%47th |
Season so far
Kentucky7–1 · 8th-hardest schedule
Wvs Youngstown State45–13covered −22.5
L
vs Alabama17–45missed +9
vs Alabama17–45missed +9W
at Texas A&M31–21covered +16.5
at Texas A&M31–21covered +16.5W
vs South Alabama45–21covered −20.5
vs South Alabama45–21covered −20.5W
at South Carolina35–34covered +2.5
at South Carolina35–34covered +2.5W
vs LSU35–34covered +9.5
vs LSU35–34covered +9.5W
at Oklahoma21–13covered +7
at Oklahoma21–13covered +7W
vs Vanderbilt34–17covered −11
vs Vanderbilt34–17covered −11Tennessee6–2 · 29th-hardest schedule
Wvs Furman56–9missed −49
W
at Georgia Tech45–24covered −12
at Georgia Tech45–24covered −12W
vs Kennesaw State42–9missed −35.5
vs Kennesaw State42–9missed −35.5L
vs Texas17–20covered +5.5
vs Texas17–20covered +5.5W
vs Auburn24–14covered −6.5
vs Auburn24–14covered −6.5W
at Arkansas24–17missed −13.5
at Arkansas24–17missed −13.5Wvs Alabama26–10covered +7.5
vs Alabama26–10covered +7.5Lat South Carolina24–27missed +2.5
at South Carolina24–27missed +2.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 6:20 PM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is