Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2
AP #12Alabama
6–2 · Ours #8 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
45–17FinalWe had ALA 37 – UK 17
Kentucky
7–1 · Ours #38 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ALA 89%ALA won
ALA 89%ALA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ALA −10.5.ALA −9oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −20.3 · ALA covered by 19
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 53.8.47final 62 · over by 15
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UK +10.5Lbeat the close by 1.5
UK +10.5Lbeat the close by 1.5Quarterbacksthis game
Keelon Russell16/23 · 188 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1625th pct
- Comp %
- 69.6
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
Kenny Minchey18/32 · 146 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.544th pct
- Comp %
- 56.3
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Alabamaoffense | Played like ALA +26.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseKentucky | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72nd | 48.3%▲1.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 48.3%▼5.8 | 28th |
| 45th | +0.02▼0.18 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.02▲0.01 | 55th |
| 28th | −0.16▼0.51 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.16▲0.18 | 72nd |
| 71st | +0.19▲0.13 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.19▼0.15 | 29th |
| 4th | 3▼2.1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 3▲1.2 | 96th |
| Kentuckyoffense | defenseAlabama | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15th | 30.5%▼18.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 30.5%▲7.6 | 85th |
| 2nd | −0.51▼0.68 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.51▲0.54 | 98th |
| 4th | −0.61▼0.76 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.61▲0.73 | 96th |
| 7th | −0.38▼0.58 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.38▲0.33 | 93rd |
| 15th | 2▼2.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| AlabamaALA | KentuckyUK | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 4298th | Own 2520th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.6 pts89th | +0.8 pts70th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5848th | 5951st |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +16.788th | −16.712th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts68th | −0.5 pts24th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ALA +8.4: field position +6.0, kicking +0.6, 4th downs +1.0, penalty first downs +0.8. | +8.485th | −8.415th |
Season so far
Alabama6–2 · 6th-hardest schedule
W
vs East Carolina48–10covered −28
vs East Carolina48–10covered −28Wat Kentucky45–17covered −9
at Kentucky45–17covered −9W
vs Florida State50–36missed −19
vs Florida State50–36missed −19W
vs South Carolina49–18covered −12.5
vs South Carolina49–18covered −12.5W
at Mississippi State56–23covered −5.5
at Mississippi State56–23covered −5.5L
vs Georgia17–20missed −2.5
vs Georgia17–20missed −2.5L
at Tennessee10–26missed −7.5
at Tennessee10–26missed −7.5W
vs Texas A&M31–20missed −13.5
vs Texas A&M31–20missed −13.5Kentucky7–1 · 8th-hardest schedule
Wvs Youngstown State45–13covered −22.5
Lvs Alabama17–45missed +9
vs Alabama17–45missed +9Wat Texas A&M31–21covered +16.5
at Texas A&M31–21covered +16.5W
vs South Alabama45–21covered −20.5
vs South Alabama45–21covered −20.5Wat South Carolina35–34covered +2.5
at South Carolina35–34covered +2.5W
vs LSU35–34covered +9.5
vs LSU35–34covered +9.5W
at Oklahoma21–13covered +7
at Oklahoma21–13covered +7W
vs Vanderbilt34–17covered −11
vs Vanderbilt34–17covered −11Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 3:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is