Week 1 report · Sat, Sep 5 · 2026 Week 1
Northern Illinois
0–7 · Ours #121 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
0–40FinalWe had NIU 12 – IOWA 40
AP #22Iowa
6–2 · Ours #25 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.IOWA 95%IOWA won
IOWA 95%IOWA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at IOWA −31.5.IOWA −31oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −27.3 · IOWA covered by 9
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 52.1.44.5final 40 · under by 4.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.NIU +31.5Lbeat the close by 0.5
NIU +31.5Lbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Taron Dickens9/14 · 96 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3412th pct
- Comp %
- 64.3
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
Replaced Jalen Macon in Q2
Hank Brown12/20 · 129 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4481st pct
- Comp %
- 60.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Relieved in Q1 by Jeremy Hecklinski
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Northern Illinoisoffense | Played like IOWA +53.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseIowa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0th | 4.8%▼33.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 4.8%▲33.1 | 100th |
| 1st | −0.64▼0.80 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.64▲0.63 | 99th |
| 1st | −0.90▼1.10 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.90▲1.10 | 99th |
| 6th | −0.40▼0.60 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.40▲0.17 | 94th |
| 41st | 1▼0.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.6 | 59th |
| Iowaoffense | defenseNorthern Illinois | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71st | 48.0%▲7.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 48.0%▲7.6 | 29th |
| 85th | +0.34▲0.40 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.34▼0.03 | 15th |
| 76th | +0.33▲0.37 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.33▼0.40 | 24th |
| 88th | +0.34▲0.41 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.34▼0.20 | 12th |
| 41st | 1▲0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.2 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Northern IllinoisNIU | IowaIOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2311th | Own 3894th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | −0.1 pts28th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 211st | 5030th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −29.43rd | +29.498th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 486th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts50th | −1.6 pts1st |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. IOWA +12.4: turnovers +2.6, field position +5.5, kicking −0.1, 4th downs −2.1, penalty first downs +2.3, return touchdowns +4.2. | −12.45th | +12.495th |
Season so far
Northern Illinois0–7 · 68th-hardest schedule
Lat Iowa0–40missed +31QB change mid-game
at Iowa0–40missed +31QB change mid-gameLvs Illinois State24–28missed +2.5QB change mid-game
L
at Arizona17–42covered +34.5
at Arizona17–42covered +34.5L
at Georgia State14–35missed +10
at Georgia State14–35missed +10L
vs Air Force7–28missed +7
vs Air Force7–28missed +7L
at Wyoming23–41missed +7
at Wyoming23–41missed +7L
vs Hawai'i21–56missed +3
vs Hawai'i21–56missed +3Iowa6–2 · 42nd-hardest schedule
Wvs Northern Illinois40–0covered −31
vs Northern Illinois40–0covered −31W
vs Iowa State16–13missed −14
vs Iowa State16–13missed −14Wvs Northern Iowa55–0covered −37.5
W
at Michigan20–19covered +5.5
at Michigan20–19covered +5.5L
vs Ohio State14–31missed +14.5
vs Ohio State14–31missed +14.5W
at Washington41–24covered +3
at Washington41–24covered +3L
at Minnesota10–13missed −7.5QB change mid-game
at Minnesota10–13missed −7.5QB change mid-gameW
vs Wisconsin30–0covered −2.5
vs Wisconsin30–0covered −2.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 5, 3:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is